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Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 522

Home Economic Research Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 522 Negative outlook on Sub-Saharan sovereigns
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Negative outlook on Sub-Saharan sovereigns

Moody’s Investors Service indicated that the outlook on the sovereign ratings of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries is 'negative' over the next 12 to 18 months due to the region's subdued growth prospects, fiscal consolidation challenges and increased political risks. It projected growth in the SSA region to accelerate from an estimated 2.6% in 2017 to 3.5% in 2018, supported by a stronger global economy and a modest rise in commodity prices. Still, it noted that low commodity prices, domestic structural bottlenecks and the challenging business environment would continue to weigh on economic activity in SSA economies. It added that the economic recovery is fragile, is uneven across countries and is below the region's potential. In parallel, Moody’s expected the fiscal deficit in most SSA-rated sovereigns to stabilize in 2018, but to be wider than the pre-2014 levels. In this context, it indicated that the public debt levels of SSA economies would increase this year, but at a slower pace, due to fiscal consolidation challenges, high debt servicing costs and subdued growth in the region.
Source: Moody’s Investors Service
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Byblos Bank S.A.L., Byblos Bank Headquarters, Elias Sarkis Ave., Ashrafieh, Beirut

List of Banks No.39, CRB:14150, BDL Authorization No. 11/231 Dated 14 May 2005

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