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Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 522

Home Economic Research Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 522 Outlook depends on economic policies and reforms
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Outlook depends on economic policies and reforms

The International Monetary Fund expected Egypt's growth outlook to be favorable, provided that authorities maintain their prudent macroeconomic policies and continue to implement growth-supportive reforms. It noted that the authorities’ reform program and the IMF support have helped stabilize the economy, restore market sentiment, strengthen the growth momentum, narrow the fiscal and external deficits, reduce inflationary pressure and replenish foreign currency reserves. It projected Egypt's real GDP growth to accelerate from 4.2% in the fiscal year that ended in June 2017 to 4.8% in FY2017/18 and to reach 6% in the medium term, in case of a recovery in consumption, private investment and net exports. It forecast the average inflation rate to decline from 23.5% in FY2016/17 to 13.7% in FY2018/19, supported by tight monetary policy. It noted that the main risks to the outlook are a slowdown or reversal of reforms that could weigh on investment activity and reduce growth. It said that other risks consist of a sustained increase in oil prices that would weaken the external balance and increase the fuel subsidy bill, and a deterioration in security conditions that would weigh on tourism, among others.
Source: International Monetary Fund
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Byblos Bank S.A.L., Byblos Bank Headquarters, Elias Sarkis Ave., Ashrafieh, Beirut

List of Banks No.39, CRB:14150, BDL Authorization No. 11/231 Dated 14 May 2005

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