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Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 523

Home Economic Research Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 523 Economic activity to pick up in 2018
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Economic activity to pick up in 2018

Samba Financial Group projected Saudi Arabia's real GDP to grow by 1.8% in 2018 following a contraction of 0.7% in 2017, supported mainly by an increase in consumption, a rise in non-hydrocarbon exports and higher public investment. It anticipated economic growth to be constrained by flat oil production this year, while it forecast non-hydrocarbon sector activity to accelerate from 1.1% in 2017 to 2.7% in 2018. It expected economic growth to reach 3.2% in 2019 and 3.8% by 2020, in case foreign investment flows recover, government spending continues to be strong and household confidence further improves.

In parallel, Samba forecast Saudi Arabia's fiscal deficit at 8.9% of GDP in 2018, nearly unchanged from the preceding year, as it expected public spending to increase by 10% this year. It estimated the net gains from the introduction of the VAT to be negative this year, as the rollout of cash payments to lower-income households would offset the increase in VAT receipts and the cuts in subsidies. It considered that Saudi Arabia's looser fiscal policy is in line with the IMF advice to adopt a gradual fiscal adjustment, and does not signal any significant change in the government's commitment to the National Transformation Plan.
Source: Samba Financial Group
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Byblos Bank S.A.L., Byblos Bank Headquarters, Elias Sarkis Ave., Ashrafieh, Beirut

List of Banks No.39, CRB:14150, BDL Authorization No. 11/231 Dated 14 May 2005

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