The Institute of International Finance projected Iraq's real GDP growth to accelerate from 0.2% in 2017 to 4% in 2018 and 4.4% in 2019. It expected hydrocarbon output to grow by 3% in 2018 and 4% in 2019 following a contraction of 2.1% in 2017. It forecast growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector at 6% this year and 5% in 2019, relative to 5% last year, mainly due to the government's expansionary fiscal stance and the recovery from a low output base following three years of contraction, and as the new reconstruction phase begins following the defeat of Islamic State militants. It said that the Iraqi government still has to implement many reforms, such as improving access to credit and developing the banking sector in order to develop the non-oil sector. It added that the government plans to gradually raise electricity tariffs above cost recovery to attract investment to the sector. It indicated that the main risks to the outlook include the intensification of sectarian tensions and lower-than-anticipated oil prices that could generate substantial revenue losses, weaken the fiscal and trade balances, and increase pressure on foreign currency reserves and on the exchange rate peg. 

Source: Institute of International Finance

The World Bank estimated wealth in the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region at $158,892 per capita, the third highest behind North America ($986,621) and Europe & Central Asia ($368,233), and ahead of East Asia & Pacific ($140,042), Latin America & the Caribbean ($138,294), Sub-Saharan Africa ($25,562) and South Asia ($18,400). When excluding the MENA region's high-income countries, the Bank estimated the region’s wealth at $48,495 per capita, the fourth highest behind Latin America & the Caribbean ($133,614), East Asia & Pacific ($91,581) and Europe & Central Asia ($70,530). 

Source: World Bank

Moody's Investors Service downgraded from 'Ba1' to 'Ba2' the long-term debt and local-currency deposit ratings of Ziraat Bankasi, Akbank, Turkiye IS Bankasi (Isbank), Turkiye Garanti Bankasi, Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi (YapiKredi), Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi, Turk Ekonomi Bankasi, Turkiye Sinai Kalkinma Bankasi, Export Credit Bank of Turkey, Alternatifbank, QNB Finansbank and ING Bank, and from 'Ba2' to 'Ba3' the ratings of Turkiye Halk Bankasi (Halkbank). It also affirmed at 'Ba2' the ratings of Denizbank, at 'Ba3' those of HSBC Bank Turkey and Odea Bank, and at 'B2' the ratings of Sekerbank. Further, it maintained the 'negative' outlook on the ratings of Isbank, YapiKredi, Halkbank, Denizbank and HSBC Bank Turkey, while it revised the outlook on the ratings of the remaining banks from 'negative' to 'stable'. The agency attributed the downgrade of the banks’ ratings to its similar action on the sovereign ratings, which reflects the weakening capacity of the Turkish government to provide support in case of need, as well as a challenging operating environment. 

Source: Moody's Investors Service