Economic Research | Country Risk Weekly Bulletin | Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 534 | Sudan's real GDP growth to average 3.6% in 2018-19 period | Lebanon | Byblos Bank

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Byblos Bank

Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 534

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Sudan's real GDP growth to average 3.6% in 2018-19 period

The International Monetary Fund projected Sudan's real GDP growth to accelerate from 3.2% in 2017 to 3.7% in 2018, compared to a growth rate of 4.3% for oil importers in the MENA region this year, supported by the lifting of U.S. trade and financial sanctions in October 2017, stronger domestic demand and higher foreign investment flows. However, it forecast economic growth to decelerate to 3.5% in 2019 amid ongoing fiscal and external challenges. Also, it expected Sudan's inflation rate to average 43.5% in 2018 and 39.5% in 2019 compared to 32.4% last year. 

In parallel, the Fund projected the fiscal deficit to widen from 1.4% of GDP in 2017 to 3.1% of GDP in 2018, but to narrow to 2.9% of GDP in 2019. Further, it expected the government's gross debt level to rise from 126% of GDP at the end of 2017 to 176.5% of GDP at end-2018 and to 176% of GDP at end-2019. It also forecast the gross external debt to increase from 92.6% of GDP in 2017 to 133% of GDP in 2018 and 2019. Further, the IMF projected the country's current account to post deficits of $2.6bn, or 6.2% of GDP, in 2018, and of $2.9bn, or 6.8% of GDP, in 2019, compared to a deficit of $3.2bn, or 5.5% of GDP, last year. It expected Sudan's gross foreign currency reserves to rise from $0.9bn at the end of 2017 to $1bn at end-2018 and $1.1bn at end-2019.
Source: International Monetary Fund
 
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