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Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 537

May 24, 2018
Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 537
Syria's Nominal and Real GDP

Source: Central Bureau of Statistics

  • Syria's real GDP contracts by 6% in 2015 and 4% in 2016
    Figures issued by the Central Bureau of Statistics in Syria show that Syria's nominal GDP stood at SYP5,697.5bn, or $12.38bn, in 2016 compared to SYP4,525bn, or $19.1bn, in 2015 and to SYP3,563bn, or $23.1bn, in 2014. Also, Syria's real GDP contracted by 4% in 2016, compared to retreats of 6.1% in 2015 and of 14.7% in 2014. On a sectoral basis, activity in the mining, quarrying & manufacturing sector grew by 18.3% in real terms in 2016, followed by activity of non-profit institutions (+16%) and of the transportation, storage & communications sector (+6.4%). In contrast, activity in the wholesale, retail trade & repair sector contracted by 22.8% in 2016, followed by social services (-11%), finance, insurance & real estate services (-9.1%), government services (-8.6%), building & construction (-2.3%) and agriculture, forests & livestock (-0.8%). Also, output from the country's agriculture, forests & livestock sector reached $4.6bn in 2016 and accounted for 37% of the country's nominal GDP, followed by mining, quarrying & manufacturing output with $2bn (16.4%), the wholesale, retail trade & repair sector with $1.64bn (13.3%), government services with $1.56bn (12.6%), the transportation, storage & communication sectors with $1.26bn (10.2%), social services with $735.1m (5.9%), finance, insurance & real estate services with $416.4m (3.4%), the building & construction sector with $140.6m (1.1%) and non-profit institutions with $12m (0.1%).
    Source: Central Bureau of Statistics

  • Infrastructure projects with private participation in developing economies up 37% to $93bn in 2017
    Figures released by the World Bank show that investment commitments in infrastructure projects with private participation, or public-private investments (PPIs), in developing economies totaled $93.3bn in 2017, constituting an increase of 37% from 2016. PPIs in the energy sector reached $51.9bn in 2017, or 55.6% of the total, followed by those in the transportation industry with $36.5bn (39.1%), investments in the information and communications technology sector (ICT) with $3bn (3.2%), and those in the water & sewage industry with $1.9bn (2%). On a regional basis, the East Asia & Pacific region attracted 52.5% of total PPIs last year, followed by Latin America & the Caribbean (20.8%), South Asia (12.5%), the Middle East & North Africa (6.3%), Europe & Central Asia (5.7%) and Sub-Saharan Africa (2.3%). In parallel, there were 304 infrastructure projects financed through PPIs in 2017, of which 203 projects were in the energy sector, 66 in transportation, 30 projects in the water sector and five projects were in ICT. As such, the average investment commitment per project was $307m last year compared to $244m in 2016. Further, 52 developing economies received PPIs in 2017, up from 37 economies in 2016, and relative to an average of 41 countries in the previous five years. China attracted $17.5bn across 73 projects, followed by Indonesia with $15.4bn (11 projects), Mexico with $8.6bn (20 projects), Brazil with $7.3bn (24 projects) and Pakistan with $5.9bn (four projects). The five countries attracted $54.5bn in PPIs, or 58% of the total, in 2017.
    Source: World Bank, Byblos Research

  • Decline in correspondent banking relations weighing on growth prospects
    The International Monetary Fund indicated that the decline in global correspondent banking relationships (CBRs) has disproportionally affected banks and money transfer operators (MTOs) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It said that the limited ability of some banks and MTOs in small and fragile SSA countries to access the global payments system has negatively impacted trade and remittance flows, and weighed on the growth prospects of these countries. The Fund defines correspondent banking as the provision of banking services by one bank, which is the correspondent bank, to another bank, which is the respondent bank. It added that correspondent banking is an essential mechanism that enables customers and businesses to conduct payment transactions and send money across borders, as well as for banks to access foreign financial systems. Further, the IMF reiterated the need for coordinated efforts to address the challenges facing the SSA region, while stressing that building trust is a key factor to mitigate the risks associated with CBR withdrawal. It encouraged SSA authorities to strengthen communication channels with global banks, including by providing policy statements, and called on respondent banks to provide any requested information in a timely manner. It stressed the need for sustained technical assistance and training by relevant public and private institutions to improve anti-money laundering and the combating the financing of terrorism frameworks, as well as to strengthen respondent banks' capacity to manage any associated risks. Finally, the Fund noted the importance of developing regional responses, including better coordination among oversight entities, and the potential expansion of regional clearing and payment systems.
    Source: International Monetary Fund

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