IHS Markit indicated that Syria's real GDP contracted by 58.3% between 2011 and 2016, and that economic activity retreated by an annual average of 12.4% during the 2011-16 period. Also, it indicated that economic activity in Syria continued to shrink but at a slower rate between 2014 and 2016, with real GDP contraction slowing down from 14.7% in 2014 to 6.1% in 2015 and 4% in 2016, according to official national accounts. Further, it estimated Syria's economic contraction at about 2.3% in 2017. It said that activity in wholesale & retail trade contracted by an annual average of 21% in real terms during the 2011-16 period, followed by mining, manufacturing & utilities (-18.2%), the agricultural sector (-9.3%), transportation & communications (-6.7%) and government services (-0.5%). In parallel, IHS estimated that the country's mining, manufacturing & utilities sector has expanded in 2017, while it considered the transport & communications sector to have registered growth last year. It added that the wholesale & retail trade sector is likely to have recorded a more moderate contraction in 2017. In parallel, IHS forecast Syria's real GDP to contract by 0.3% in 2018, and said that it remains unclear when the economy will stabilize, given the massive infrastructure damage and the huge financing needs for the reconstruction phase in coming years.
Source: IHS Markit, Central Bank of Syria