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Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 553

September 27, 2018
Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 553

Source: World Bank, Byblos Research

 

  • Public governance varies across countries
    The World Bank's annual World Governance Indicators for 2017 show that the average score of 20 Arab countries regressed on three out of six governance indicators included in the survey, improved on two indicators, and was nearly unchanged on the remaining indicator. The indicators cover 214 countries and territories worldwide that are rated on a scale of -2.5 to +2.5, with higher values corresponding to better governance outcomes. Arab countries posted an average score of -0.48 points on the Government Effectiveness indicator, up from -0.49 points in 2016. The indicator evaluates the quality of public services and the degree of their independence from political pressure, as well as the quality of policy formulation and implementation, and the credibility of the government's commitment to such policies. The region's government effectiveness was higher than that of the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region (-0.84 points) only. The UAE had the most effective government among Arab countries with a score of +1.4 points, while Yemen (-1.92 points) came last. In parallel, Arab countries received a score of -0.46 points on the Control of Corruption indicator, nearly unchanged from 2016. The region's average score was better than the scores of South Asia (-0.47 points) and SSA (-0.68 points) only. The UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia were the least corrupt Arab countries, while Yemen, Libya and Syria were the most corrupt countries in the region.    
    Source: World Bank, Byblos Research
     

  • U.S. sanctions to weigh on Iran's economic activity
    The Institute of International Finance projected Iran's real GDP to shift from a growth rate of 4.1% in the fiscal year that ended in March 2018 to a contraction of 2.8% in FY2018/19, due to the expected sharp decline in crude oil exports, and to lower private consumption and investment. It anticipated a contraction of 2.1% in private consumption in FY2018/19 relative to an expansion of 2.5% in FY2017/18. It indicated that the first wave of U.S. sanctions on Iran took effect on August 7 and targeted the automotive sector and the trade in gold and other precious metals. It said that the second wave of sanctions, which are scheduled for November 2018, will be imposed on Iran's energy and financial sectors. As such, it anticipated real hydrocarbon GDP to shrink by 8.3% in FY2018/19 relative to a growth rate of 2.5% in FY2017/18, and for non-hydrocarbon real GDP to shift from a growth of 3.6% in FY2017/18 to a contraction of 1.2% in FY2018/19. Further, it noted that the Iranian rial has lost more than 80% of its value against the US dollar since the beginning of 2018. It pointed out that the significant currency depreciation has made imports very expensive, leading to a drop in industrial production, while it noted that non-oil exports could benefit from the weaker currency. It anticipated the average inflation rate to surge from 10% in FY2017/18 to 40.5% in FY2018/19, amid the steep currency depreciation. It noted that the government's inability to implement policies to control the currency depreciation and reduce the inflation rate is causing social discontent.
    Source: Institute of International Finance
     

  • Tier One capital of top nine Nigerian banks at $10bn
    In its 2018 survey of the Top 1000 commercial banks in the world, The Banker magazine included nine banks operating in Nigeria on the list, with five banks ranked among the top 25 banks in Africa. The rankings are based on the banks' Tier One capital at end-2017, as defined by the Basel Bank of International Settlements. The aggregate Tier One capital of Nigerian banks totaled $9.6bn at the end of 2017 relative to about $8.9bn a year earlier, and accounted for 12.7% of the Tier One capital of banks in Africa. Also, the aggregate assets of the nine banks reached $93.1bn at the end of 2017 and accounted for 9.9% of the aggregate assets of banks in Africa. As such, Nigerian banks' combined Tier One capital-to-assets ratio was 10.4% at end-2017, higher than the ratio of 8.05% of banks in Africa and the Top 1000 banks' aggregate ratio of 6.7%. Also, the cumulative pre-tax profits of the nine banks reached $2.4bn in 2017. The ratio of pre-tax profits-to-Tier One capital of Nigerian banks reached 25% in 2017, higher than the Top 1000 banks' ratio of 13.5%. The Tier One capital of Zenith Bank was $2.47bn in 2017, the highest among Nigerian banks, followed by Guarantee Trust Bank ($1.51bn), First Bank of Nigeria ($1.45bn), Access Bank ($1.3bn), United Bank for Africa ($711m), Ecobank Nigeria ($603m), Stanbic IBTC Holdings ($556m), Diamond Bank ($553m) and Fidelity Bank ($491m).  
    Source: The Banker
     

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