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Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 566

January 10, 2019
Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 566

Value and Volume of IPOs in the Economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council

 

Source: KAMCO


  • IPOs in the GCC countries down 18% to $2.7bn in 2018
    Figures released by KAMCO indicate that capital raised through initial public offerings (IPOs) in the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which include corporate IPOs and Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) IPOs, totaled $2.7bn in 2018, constituting a decline of 18.2% from $3.3bn in 2017. There were 18 IPOs in the GCC in 2018, down from 28 IPOs in 2017, relative to four IPOs in 2016 and six IPOs in 2015. Further, capital raised through IPOs in the GCC region accounted for 1.3% of total capital raised through IPOs worldwide, while the number of IPO deals in the region also represented 1.3% of the number of global IPOs in 2018. There were 11 IPO deals in Saudi Arabia that raised $1.3bn in 2018, followed by two IPOs in each of the UAE ($251.1m) and Oman ($119.1m), and one IPO deal in each of Qatar ($754.5m), Kuwait ($213.2m), and Bahrain ($31.5m). Further, there were 10 corporate IPOs, which raised $1.7bn in capital, or the equivalent of 62% of total capital raised in 2018, and eight REIT IPOs that raised $1bn, or 38% of total capital last year. The iron & steel industry raised about $754.5m in 2018, followed by the oil & gas sector ($226.1m), the leisure time industry ($217.9m), and the distribution & wholesale sector ($213.2m). In parallel, the aggregate number of IPOs in GCC countries totaled 81 deals during the 2013-18 period, while the aggregate amount of capital raised through IPOs in the region reached $12.9bn in the covered period. 
    Source: KAMCO, Byblos Research
     

  • Arab region has second most expensive mobile-cellular service globally
    Figures released by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) show that the cost of the mobile-cellular basket in 20 Arab economies averaged about 4% of GNI per capita in 2017, the second costliest in the world behind Africa (15% of GNI per capita). The mobile-cellular basket covers the cost of a standard 30 outgoing calls per month at pre-determined rates, plus 100 SMS messages. The UAE has the cheapest mobile-cellular service among Arab countries at 0.19% of GNI per capita, followed by Qatar (0.36% of GNI), Kuwait (0.54% of GNI) and Bahrain (0.59% of GNI), while Djibouti (11.32% of GNI), the Comoros (16.46% of GNI) and Mauritania (19.11% of GNI) have the most expensive service in the region. In parallel, Qatar has the least expensive prepaid handset-based mobile broadband service among Arab countries at 0.32% of GNI per capita, while Mauritania has the most expensive service at 33.2% of GNI per capita. The cost covers an entry-level mobile-broadband subscription with a validity of 30 days and a minimum of 500 Megabytes of data volume allowance that is used through handheld devices such as a mobile phones or tablets. Further, Qatar has the cheapest postpaid computer-based mobile-broadband service among Arab countries at 0.49% of GNI per capita per month, while Mauritania has the most expensive service at 33.2% GNI per capita. The cost covers an entry-level computer-based mobile-broadband subscription with a validity of 30 days and a minimum of one Gigabyte of data volume allowance. 
    Source: International Telecommunication Union 
     

  • Growth in the MENA region to average 2.4% in 2019-21 period
    The World Bank projected real GDP growth in the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region to accelerate from 1.7% in 2018 to 1.9% in 2019 and 2.7% by 2021 due to improved activity in oil-exporting and oil-importing countries, and despite slower global trade growth and tighter external financing conditions. It forecast growth in the region's oil-exporting countries to increase from 1.2% last year to 1.4% in 2019 and 2.3% by 2021, supported by improved activity in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies amid higher investment and an improved regulatory environment in these countries. It expected real GDP growth in GCC economies to expand from 2% in 2018 to 2.6% in 2019 and to 2.7% in 2021, due to the countries' planned diversification programs, infrastructure projects and medium-term reform plans. In contrast, it projected economic activity in non-GCC oil exporters to be weak, as it expected Iran's real GDP to contract due to the U.S. sanctions, and for Algeria's growth to moderate due to reduced government spending in 2019. 

    In parallel, the World Bank anticipated real GDP growth in oil-importing economies to pick up from 4.1% last year to 4.2% in 2019 and 4.7% by 2021, mainly supported by tourism activity in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. However, it considered that smaller oil-importing countries continue to struggle with elevated public debt levels and, for some, with challenges associated with an ongoing refugee crisis. Further, it indicated that risks to the MENA region's outlook are mainly tilted to the downside and include escalating global trade tensions, given that the region is interconnected to the European Union and China. In addition, it said that an abrupt tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies, such as in the U.S., could also weigh on capital flows into the MENA region and adversely affect foreign investor confidence in large GCC economies. In contrast, it pointed out that rising reconstruction spending in countries affected by conflict, such as Iraq, could support investment in physical and soft infrastructure.
    Source: World Bank
     

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