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Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 567

January 17, 2019
Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 567

Fixed Income Issuance in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (US$bn)

 

Source: KAMCO

 

  • Fixed income issuance in the GCC at $106bn in 2018
    Total fixed income issuance in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries reached $105.9bn in 2018, down by 14.1% from $123.3bn in 2017. Aggregate fixed income in 2018 included $37.4bn in sovereign bonds, or 35.3% of the total, followed by corporate bond issuance at $35bn (33.1%), sovereign sukuk at $21.3bn (20.1%) and corporate sukuk at $12.1bn (11.4%). Aggregate bonds and sukuk issued by GCC sovereigns reached $58.7bn, or 55.5% of total fixed income issuance in the region, while bonds and sukuk issued by corporates in the GCC amounted to $47.1bn or 44.5% of the total. On a country basis, total fixed income issuance in Saudi Arabia reached $32.5bn in 2018 and accounted for 30.7% of the region's total issuance, followed by Qatar with $29.1bn (27.5%), the UAE with $28.2bn (26.6%), Oman with $11.7bn (11%), Bahrain with $3.5bn (3.3%) and Kuwait with $1bn (0.9%). On a monthly basis, GCC sovereigns issued $11.5bn in bonds and sukuk in January, $300m in February, $1.8bn in March, $27.2bn in April, $800m in May, $3.6bn in June, $3.3bn in July, $400m in August, $5.3bn in September, $3.2bn in October, $1bn in November and $300m in December 2018. In parallel, corporates in the GCC issued $2.2bn in bonds and sukuk in January, $8bn in February, $6.4bn in March, $6.1bn in April, $3.4bn in May, $800m in June, $500m in July, $1.3bn in August, $7.6bn in September, $4.9bn in October, $4.2bn in November and $1.7bn in December 2018.
    Source: KAMCO
     

  • Cost of living varies among Arab cities
    The 2019 Cost of Living survey, produced by crowd-sourced global database Numbeo, ranked Abu Dhabi as the most expensive city among 22 Arab cities and the 185th most expensive among 433 cities worldwide. Beirut followed in 196th place, then Al Ain in the UAE (199th), Doha (203rd) and Amman (209th) as the five Arab cities with the highest cost of living. The Arab cities that have the lowest cost of living are Casablanca (341st), Algiers (367th), Cairo (398th), Alexandria (404th) and Tunis (407th). The Cost of Living survey is a relative indicator of the prices of consumer goods and services, such as groceries, restaurants, transportation and utilities. Based on the same cities included in the 2018 and 2019 surveys, the rankings of 14 out of 20 Arab cities rose, reflecting an increase in the cost of living relative to other cities worldwide, while the rankings of six cities regressed from the 2018 survey. Further, the Rent Index shows that Abu Dhabi has the highest apartment rents regionally, while rents in Alexandria are the lowest. Also, the Groceries Index indicates that Al Ain is the most expensive city in terms of grocery prices in the region, while grocery prices in Alexandria are the lowest. In addition, the Restaurant Index shows that Abu Dhabi has the highest prices of meals and drinks at restaurants and pubs, while Tunis has the lowest such prices regionally. Numbeo relies on residents' inputs and uses data from official sources to compute the indices.
    Source: Numbeo, Byblos Research
     

  • Consolidation to strengthen Ghanaian banks' capital metrics and profitability
    Moody's Investors Service indicated that figures published by the Bank of Ghana (BOG) show that the number of banks in the Ghanaian banking sector declined from 34 at the end of 2017 to 23 at end-2018, following the increase in the banks' minimum regulatory capital to GHS400m. The agency noted that the consolidation is credit positive for the banking sector as it eliminated weaker and undercapitalized banks that posed risks to the sector's financial stability, while supporting the banks' efficiency and profitability. It added that the banks' consolidation has led to higher capital ratios, which resulted in better loan-loss absorption capacity for the banks. It noted that the remaining banks have increased their minimum regulatory capital either internally or through capital injections and mergers. It estimated the sector's capital adequacy ratio to have increased from 17% at end-October 2016 to 20% at end-October 2018 due to capital injections, and projected it to further rise following additional recapitalization and liquidations measures. As such, it anticipated banks to be better positioned to address their high levels of non-performing loans (NPLs). In addition, Moody's anticipated consolidation measures to lead to better economies of scale for banks, help alleviate the negative pressure on interest margins and improve the banks' ability to underwrite larger corporate loans. However, the agency pointed out that Ghanaian banks still face high asset quality risks, as the sector's NPLs ratio stood at 20.1% at the end of October 2018, while interest rates are declining, which is weighing on the banks' income from government securities. 
    Source: Moody's Investors Service
     

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