The International Monetary Fund projected real GDP growth in the economies of the West African Economic & Monetary Union (WAEMU), which consist of Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo, to average 6.7% annually during the 2019-23 period, compared to 6.3% in 2018. It noted that the region's economic activity has been driven by strong domestic demand, despite security concerns in the region and lower terms of trade. It expected the inflation rate to remain subdued at about 1.8% annually in the 2019-23 period, which will support the union's economic activity. The Fund indicated that the region's medium-term growth outlook is positive but depends on the implementation of the planned reforms. It said that the outlook is subject to significant downside risks that include persistent security issues, delays in implementing fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, higher imports or lower capital flows, weaker-than-expected global economic activity and tighter global financing conditions.

The IMF forecast the WAEMU's aggregate fiscal deficit to narrow from 3.8% of GDP in 2018 to 3.1% of GDP in 2019 and 2.6% of GDP by 2023, as the eight economies are committed to meet the regional fiscal deficit convergence criterion of 3% of GDP. It noted that the union's public debt level increased from 50.1% of GDP at the end of 2017 to 52.5% of GDP at end-2018 due to increased Eurobond issuances, but expected the debt level to decline to 46.5% of GDP by end-2023. Further, it said that the aggregate current account deficit of WAEMU economies widened from 6.6% of GDP in 2017 to 6.8% of GDP in 2018 due to strong public capital spending and worsening terms-of-trade amid higher oil prices, while it projected the deficit to narrow to 5% of GDP by 2023. It anticipated the region's gross foreign currency reserves to rise from $12.4bn in 2018 to $23.6bn in 2023.
Source: International Monetary Fund