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Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 581

May 02, 2019
Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 581

Earnings of Listed Companies in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries  (US$bn)

 

Source: KAMCO

 

  • Corporate earnings in the GCC up 3.5% to $69bn in 2018
    The net income of listed companies in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries reached $68.6bn in 2018, constituting an increase of 3.5% from $66.3bn in 2017. Earnings reached $18.1bn in the first quarter of 2018, $18.7bn in the second quarter, $19bn in the third quarter and $12.8bn in the fourth quarter of the year. Listed companies in Saudi Arabia accounted for $28.2bn, or 41.2% of total corporate earnings in 2018, followed by listed firms in Qatar with $11.3bn (16.5%), Abu Dhabi with $10.5bn (15.3%), Dubai with $9.1bn (13.3%), Kuwait with $5.8bn (8.5%), Bahrain with $2bn (2.9%), and Oman with $1.6bn (2.3%). Further, the earnings of listed firms in Kuwait increased by 10.7% in 2018, followed by profits of listed corporates in Dubai (+8.8%), Qatar (+6.3%), Bahrain (+6%), Saudi Arabia (+1.3%) and Oman (+0.7%). In contrast, total earnings of listed companies in Abu Dhabi decreased by 1.3% last year. In parallel, the earnings of listed banks in the GCC region reached $36.9bn in 2018 and accounted for 53.8% of total corporate earnings, followed by materials firms with $10.1bn (14.7%), telecommunications companies with $7.7bn (11.2%), real estate firms with $5.5bn (8%) and companies in the capital goods sector with $2.1bn (3.1%). Also, the earnings of listed companies in the capital goods sector increased by 31.3% in 2018, followed by materials firms (+13.5%), banks (+11.8%), telecom firms (+11.6%), and real estate companies (+1.9%). In contrast, the profits of listed firms in the healthcare industry decreased by 62.5%, followed by companies in the utilities sector (-56.2%), and corporates in the food, beverage & tobacco industry (-41.7%). 
    Source: KAMCO 
     

  • Retail sales in the GCC to grow at CAGR of 4% between 2018 and 2023
    Alpen Capital projected retail sales in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to reach $308bn by 2023, and to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4% from $253.2bn in 2018. It expected the increase in retail sales to be driven by an expansion in the region's population and a rise in tourist arrivals to the GCC. It also forecast non-food retail sales at $193.7bn in 2023, equivalent to 62.9% of overall GCC retail sales; while it projected food retail sales at $114.3bn, or 37.1% of the total. It anticipated retail sales in Saudi Arabia to reach $132.7bn or 43.1% of total GCC retail sales in 2023, followed by sales in the UAE with $104bn (33.8%), Qatar with $28.5bn (9.3%), Kuwait with $20.5bn (6.7%), Oman with $16bn (5.2%) and Bahrain with $6.3bn (2.1%). Also, it forecast retail sales in the UAE to grow at a CAGR of 5.1% between 2018 and 2023, followed by Kuwait and Qatar (+4.2% each), Saudi Arabia (+3.3%), Oman (+3.1%), and Bahrain (+2.2%). It attributed the high growth in retail sales in Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE to an expected rise in their tourism activity and of their GDP per capita, as well as to the increased penetration of organized retail stores in these countries. In addition, Alpen Capital forecast duty free sales at GCC airports to reach $4.8bn by 2023 and to grow at a CAGR of 8.8% from 2018 as a result of an expansion in airport passenger traffic for events such as World Expo 2020 and the FIFA World Cup 2022. 
    Source: Alpen Capital
     

  • Egyptian banks' ratings upgraded, outlook 'stable'
    Moody's Investors Service upgraded the long-term local currency deposit ratings of National Bank of Egypt (NBE), Banque Misr (BM), Banque Du Caire (BdC) and Commercial International Bank (CIB) from 'B3' to 'B2', as well as the rating of Bank of Alexandria from 'B2' to 'B1'. It also upgraded the five banks' long-term foreign currency deposit ratings from 'Caa1' to 'B3'. The agency revised the outlook on the banks' long-term local currency deposit ratings from 'positive' to 'stable'. It noted that the upgrades follow a similar action on the sovereign ratings and reflect more favorable operating conditions for the banks, given the economic recovery and the implementation of structural reforms. It added that funding conditions, mainly those related to foreign currency, have normalized following the liberalization of the exchange rate. However, it said that the banks' credit conditions remain challenging, mainly due to gaps in the legal framework for secured lending, high borrower concentrations and the significant increase in higher-risk loans to small- and medium-sized enterprises. Further, Moody's noted that the ratings of NBE and BM are supported by their strong franchises, stable deposit-based funding structure, good liquidity buffers and improving profitability. It said that BdC's ratings are driven by its stable deposit-based funding structure, solid core liquidity buffers, strong profitability and moderate non-performing loans ratio. Further, it indicated that CIB's and Bank of Alexandria's ratings are supported by their solid financial performance, resilient deposit-based funding structure and high liquidity buffers. It added that all the banks' ratings are constrained by their high exposure to the Egyptian sovereign.
    Source: Moody's Investors Service
     

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