Citi Research projected Nigeria's real GDP growth at 2.4% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020, mainly supported by a recovery in business confidence and a normalization of agricultural output levels, and in the absence of foreign currency shortages. It also indicated that the start of oil production at Total's Engina field could have a positive impact on the short-term growth outlook, but it pointed out that the government would need to pass the Petroleum Industry Bill to maintain or raise hydrocarbon output levels for a prolonged period. Further, it considered that the scope of Nigeria's fiscal policy to support economic recovery is very limited. In this context, it noted that the potential non-oil revenues from the current government's planned reforms would take time to materialize and, consequently, expected the country's fiscal space to remain constrained in the absence of a significant rise in global oil prices and in local hydrocarbon production. 

Instead, Citi anticipated that political pressure may increase on the Central Bank of Nigeria to ease monetary policy, especially if economic activity continues to be subdued. It noted that the Monetary Policy Committee already reduced the monetary policy rate by 50 basis points to 13.5% in March 2019. It pointed out the CBN has in recent years used a combination of alternative measures, such as aggressive open market operations and changes in the cash reserve ratio, instead of the policy rates, to keep a tight monetary policy and maintain the stability of the Nigerian naira. It considered that reducing the cash reserve ratio would have a positive impact on economic growth, as it would encourage commercial banks to increase lending. But it said that lowering the ratio and easing open market operations could potentially put pressure on the Nigerian naira. 
Source: Citi Research