Economic Research | Country Risk Weekly Bulletin | Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 633 | Economic activity to contract by 8% in 2020 | Lebanon | Byblos Bank

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Byblos Bank

Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 633

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Economic activity to contract by 8% in 2020

The International Monetary Fund indicated that Sudan requested a 12-month staff-monitored program to support the implementation of its comprehensive homegrown reform package. It said that the Sudanese economy is facing overwhelming social and economic challenges. It projected real GDP to shrink by 8% in 2020, following a 2.5% contraction in 2019, due to the COVID-19 outbreak. It said that the reform package will focus on stabilizing the economy, laying the foundation for strong and inclusive growth, reducing fiscal and external deficits, containing the inflation rate, as well as improving governance and the business environment. In addition, it noted that authorities aim to increase domestic revenues and reform energy subsidies to allow for higher social spending to help mitigate the impact of the fiscal adjustments and address the fallout of the pandemic. Also, it noted that the inflation rate reached 114% in May 2020, while the Sudanese pound continues to depreciate rapidly. As such, it considered that the implementation of prudent monetary policy and exchange rate reforms, as intended under the reform program, would reduce the inflation rate, boost external competitiveness, and support the economic recovery. Further, the IMF encouraged the authorities' efforts to solicit international partners to mobilize needed financing for the reform program. It noted that Sudan's debt burden exceeded 190% of GDP at the end of 2019, and that the majority of the debt is in arrears. It stressed that authorities should step up efforts towards debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Country initiative. 
Source: International Monetary Fund
 
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