The World Bank estimated that the conflict in Syria has reduced the annual average real GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points in Iraq, by 1.6 percentage points in Jordan and by 1.7 percentage points in Lebanon between 2011 and 2018. It noted that the negative impact of the conflict was transmitted through several channels, predominantly through the transit trade across Syria and from service exports such as tourism. It estimated that the conflict increased Iraq's public debt by 23.4% of GDP and Lebanon's public debt by 58% of GDP in the 2011-19 period, as it said that the public debt ratio would have reached 26% of GDP in Iraq and 97% of GDP in Lebanon at the end of 2019 in the absence of the conflict. In contrast, it noted that the public debt level in Jordan would have followed the same trajectory even in the absence of the conflict. In parallel, the World Bank considered that any positive impact on the three economies from a modest recovery in Syria will come from regional stability, rather than from immediate economic opportunities related to the reconstruction of Syria. It estimated the spillover effect at between 0.2 and 0.9 percentage points of additional GDP growth annually in neighboring countries depending on security improvements and the restoration of services in Syria in the next five years. It pointed out that Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon are all net importers of the main materials needed for reconstruction, which implies low direct export opportunities for the three countries.
Source: World Bank