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Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 635

July 09, 2020

  • Infrastructure spending in EMs at $43 trillion in 2021-40
    Global reinsurer Swiss Re projected spending on infrastructure in emerging markets (EMs) at $43 trillion in the 2021-40 period compared to $23 trillion in advanced economies. It anticipated infrastructure expenditures to reach $35 trillion in Emerging Asia, or 4.2% of the region's GDP, and to account for 81.4% of total EM spending on infrastructure in the covered period. It also expected spending on infrastructure in Africa and Latin America at $3 trillion each in the 2021-40 period, which would constitute 4.3% and 2.3% of each region's GDP, respectively. Further, it projected infrastructure expenditures in Emerging Europe to reach $2 trillion, equivalent to 3% of the region's GDP in the covered period. It expected China to be the largest spender on infrastructure in the next 20 years, and to account for 54% of aggregate spending on infrastructure in EMs. It also forecast India to be the second largest investor in infrastructure among EMs in the covered period, representing 8% of EM infrastructure spending. It indicated that infrastructure spending in Africa in the 2021-40 period will be driven by Nigeria, Egypt and Ethiopia. On a sectoral basis, it anticipated the energy sector to attract 34% of infrastructure investments in EMs in the next 20 years, while it expected spending on roads to account for 33% of the total. It added that about 33% of investments in energy will be in renewable sources, mainly in wind energy and solar photovoltaic.
    Source: Swiss Re 
     
    Source: Swiss Re 

  • Investments in startups in MENA region up 35% to $659m in first half of 2020
    The online platform MAGNiTT indicated that 144 venture capital (VC) firms, angel investors, accelerators and funds invested $659m in startups based in the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region in the first half of 2020, which constitutes an increase of 35% from the same period of 2019. It noted that investments in UAE-based startups stood at around $390m, or 59% of investments in the region's startups in the first half of 2020, followed by startups in Egypt (19%), Saudi Arabia (15%), Jordan (2%), and Kuwait (1%). It added that the five largest deals amounted to $321.5m, or around 50% of the region's investments in the covered period. Further, it pointed out that there were 251 deals in startups based in the MENA region in the first half of 2020, down by 8% from the same period of last year. It said that the number of deals in startups in Egypt and in the UAE each represented 25% of total transactions in the region, followed by Saudi Arabia (18%), Oman (12%), and Jordan (6%). It indicated that the financial technology (fintech) sector attracted 16% of the number of deals in the MENA region in the first half of 2020, followed by the e-commerce sector (14%), delivery & transport (10%), and the information technology and food & beverage sectors (6% each). In addition, it noted that 31% of investors in MENA startups in the first half of 2020 were from outside the region. MAGNiTT is an online platform for startups across the MENA region that connects entrepreneurs directly with ecosystem stakeholders, including funders and mentors.
    Source: MAGNiTT
     

  • Depreciation of Angolan kwanza increases inflationary pressure and public debt level
    Citi Research indicated that the fall in global oil prices in March 2020 has exacerbated the pressure on the Angolan kwanza, as reflected by a widening of the spread between the parallel and official exchange rates. It noted that the official exchange rate reached AOA580 per US dollar at the end of June 2020, while the kwanza was trading at AOA790 per dollar on the parallel market. It added that oil companies in Angola are selling US dollars directly to local banks at an exchange rate that ranges between the official and the parallel rates, which has created a multiple exchange rate regime. Further, it pointed out that the depreciation of the kwanza has had a twofold macroeconomic impact on the Angolan economy. First, it indicated that the weaker currency contributed to a surge in the inflation rate, which averaged around 19.3% so far in 2020. Second, it said that Angola's debt ratios increased significantly, given that a considerable portion of the debt stock is denominated in US dollars. It added that the high debt servicing costs have raised the possibility of a sovereign debt default. In addition, it considered that there is very little that the Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) can do to limit the depreciation of the kwanza given its low level of foreign currency reserves and the low oil price environment, and if external debt servicing obligations continue to be high. Still, it pointed out that the BNA has recently announced that it would possibly tighten its monetary policy to prevent the currency from reaching AOA1,000 per dollar by end-2020.
    Source: Citi Research
     

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