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Lebanon This Week 526

February 17, 2018
Lebanon This Week 526

Money Supply at end-2017 (% of GDP)

Source: Merrill Lynch, Byblos Research

  • Lebanon's banking sector indicators favorable compared to emerging markets
    Merrill Lynch estimated credit to the resident private sector in Lebanon to be equivalent to 101.7% of GDP at the end of 2017, which is similar to the ratio in Asia, and is significantly higher than the Emerging Europe, the Middle East & Africa region's (EEMEA) ratio of 45.2% of GDP and Latin America's ratio of 43% of GDP. Lebanon has the seventh highest credit-to-GDP ratio among 66 emerging markets with available figures, the third highest such ratio among 52 economies in the EEMEA region and the second highest ratio among 12 Arab countries included in the survey.

    In addition, Merrill Lynch estimated the non-performing loans (NPLs) ratio in the Lebanese banking sector at 5.4%, lower than the EEMEA's NPLs ratio of 8.1%, and compared to NPLs ratios of 2.9% for Latin America and of 1.8% for Asia. The Lebanese banking sector, along with the Hungarian banking system, has the 24th lowest NPLs ratio among 47 banking sectors, the 12th lowest such ratio among 34 economies in the EEMEA region and the second lowest among three Arab countries with available figures.

    In addition, the survey indicated that the Lebanese banking sector’s capital-to-risk weighted assets ratio stood at 16.6%, higher than Latin America's ratio of 16.1% and Asia's ratio of 15.4%, but lower than the EEMEA's ratio of 17.8%.

  • Gross public debt at $79.5bn at end-2017
    Lebanon's gross public debt reached $79.5bn at the end of 2017, constituting an increase of 6.2% from $74.9bn at end-2016 and compared to increases of 6.5% in 2016, 5.6% in 2015, 4.9% in 2014, 10.1% in 2013, 7.5% in 2012, 2% in 2011 and 3% in 2010. In nominal terms, the gross public debt grew by $4.62bn in 2017, relative to increases of $4.56bn in 2016, $3.75bn in 2015, $3.1bn in 2014, $5.8bn in 2013, $4bn in 2012, $1.1bn in 2011 and $1.5bn in 2010. Debt denominated in Lebanese pounds totaled $49.1bn at the end of 2017, growing by 5% from end-2016; while debt denominated in foreign currency stood at $30.4bn, constituting a rise of 8.1% from end-2016. Lebanon's public debt was equivalent to 149% of GDP in 2017, compared to 150% of GDP in 2016 and 131% of GDP in 2012.

    Commercial banks held 40.2% of the public debt as at end-2017 relative to 46.4% of the total at end-2016. Banque du Liban (BdL) held 48% of the Lebanese pound-denominated public debt at the end of 2017, up from 42.7% a year earlier; followed by commercial banks with 37.5% of the local debt, down from 41.9% at end-2016. Also, public agencies, financial institutions and the public held 14.5% of local debt at end-2016, down from 15.3% a year earlier.

  • International support for Lebanon at $1.68bn in 2017
    The United Nations indicated that aggregate international contributions to Lebanon reached $1.68bn at the end of 2017, which includes $1.37bn in disbursed funds in 2017 and $309.6m carried over from 2016. In comparison, international support for Lebanon reached $1.9bn at end-2016, with $1.57bn in funds disbursed during 2016 and $344m carried over from 2015.

    On a country basis, it noted that the U.S. contributed $450m in 2017, equivalent to 32.7% of total contributions, followed by the European Union with $235m (17.1%), Germany with $214.8m (15.6%) and the United Kingdom with $132.2m (9.6%). Further, it said that donors reported a total of $652.7m in commitments to Lebanon starting in 2018.

    Also, the United Nations said that international contributions to the Lebanon Crisis Response Plan reached $1.24bn in 2017 and represented 45% of the appealed funds. It added that contributions to food security totaled $311m in 2017, or 25% of total contributions to the plan, followed by the education sector with $259.9m (20.9%) and basic assistance with $185.6m (15%). The Lebanon Crisis Response Plan 2017-2020 is a joint initiative between the Lebanese government and international and national partners that aims to address challenges posed by the large presence of Syrian refugees in the country.

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