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Lebanon This Week 539

June 02, 2018
Lebanon This Week 539
Percentage of Respondents Who Wish to Emigrate From Their Country

Source: Arab Center for Research & Policy Studies

  • Nine out of 10 of Lebanese consider the country's economic situation to be 'bad' or 'very bad'
    A survey conducted by the Doha-based Arab Center for Research & Policy Studies indicated that 48% of Lebanese consider that the economic situation in Lebanon is 'bad', 42% say that it is 'very bad', while only 9% believe that it is 'good' and 1% consider it to be 'very good'. The perception about economic conditions in Lebanon improved from the 2016 survey when 65% of Lebanese respondents believed that the economic situation was 'very bad', and from the 2015 survey when 71% of respondents said the economy was 'very bad'. 

    Overall, 90% of Lebanese respondents believe that the economic situation in Lebanon is 'bad' or 'very bad', nearly unchanged from 89% of respondents in the 2016 survey and relative to 95% in the 2015 survey. The percentage of respondents in Lebanon who consider that the economic situation in the country is 'bad' or 'very bad' is, along with that in Tunisia, the highest among 11 Arab economies covered in the survey, and is significantly higher than the average of 59% of respondents in the Arab region who share similar views. 

    In parallel, the survey showed that 84% of Lebanese do not wish to emigrate to another country, compared to 69% of respondents who did not wish to emigrate in the 2016 survey. The percentage of respondents in Lebanon who wish to emigrate to another country is the third lowest regionally, and is lower than the average of 26% of respondents in the Arab region who wish to emigrate to another country. Respondents in the Arab world indicated that the main reason behind their desire to emigrate is to improve their financial situation.  

    The survey was conducted in 11 Arab countries through face-to-face interviews as part of the Arab Center for Research & Policy Studies' 2017-2018 Arab Opinion Index. It covered a sample of 18,830 respondents in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Tunisia.

  • Banks buy $3bn in Eurobonds, Banque du Liban's assets in foreign currency up $2.5bn
    Banque du Liban (BdL) announced that it sold to Lebanese banks $3bn in Lebanese Eurobonds from its portfolio, exceeding the $1bn that it intended to sell originally, due to high local demand. It indicated that it sold $1.2bn of a Eurobond that matures on March 20, 2028 and that carries a coupon rate of 7%, $1.05bn of a bond maturing on May 17, 2033 carrying a coupon rate of 8.2%, and $752.5m of a Eurobond that matures on May 17, 2034 and that carries a coupon rate of 8.25%. It pointed out that banks that held Certificates of Deposits issued by BdL discounted them at par value to cover the cost of the acquired Eurobonds. BdL said that the transaction reduced its liabilities by $3bn and increased its assets in US dollars by $2.5bn. It added that it still holds about $4.7bn in Lebanese Eurobonds in its portfolio, equivalent to about 8.2% of its total assets in US dollars, and that it does not intend to sell additional Eurobonds during the remainder of 2018. In addition, BdL noted that it will pay in cash all maturing Eurobonds and related debt servicing cost in 2018, upon instructions from the Ministry of Finance. BdL acquired the four Eurobonds through two separate swap operations with the Ministry of Finance. In November 2017, the Ministry of Finance issued $1.7bn in Eurobonds and exchanged them with Lebanese pound-denominated Treasury bills from BdL's portfolio. In May 2018, the ministry issued a $5.5bn four-tranche Lebanese Eurobonds and exchanged them with LBP8,250bn worth of Lebanese pound-denominated Treasury bills from BdL's portfolio.  

    In parallel, global financial services firm Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) considered that the Eurobond sale eases near-term sovereign liquidity constraints, and does not erode the profitability of BdL and of local banks. It added that local banks acquired the Eurobonds from BdL at a yield that is one percentage point below market rates, which means that banks are unlikely to sell them to the market now and would hold them at amortized cost in their hold-to-maturity books. Also, it anticipated the Eurobonds' technicals to improve in the near term. However, it noted that the Eurobond sale did not attract foreign currency inflows, as local banks swapped their existing foreign currency-denominated assets for the Eurobonds without tapping their foreign currency liquidity abroad.

    Further, BofAML estimated that local banks discounted with BdL at least $1.7bn worth of foreign-currency denominated Certificate of Deposits (CDs) that mature by 2021 from their portfolio in order to cover the cost of the Eurobond sale. As such, it said that, following the transaction with BdL, local banks would have extended the duration of their holdings and raised their yields by between 1% and 2%. Under the assumption that Lebanese banks discounted $1.7bn in foreign currency-denominated CDs with BdL, BofAML considered that local banks generated the remaining $1.3bn through discounting their holdings of the $700m Eurobond that matures in June 2018 and the $1bn Eurobond that matures in November 2018. As such, it said that local banks held about 75% of the $1.7bn U.S.-denominated Eurobonds maturing in 2018. 

    In addition, BofAML estimated that BdL generated a modest profit of around $50m from the Eurobond sale, which constitutes between 15% to 25% of BdL's annual historical profits that range between $200m and $300m. It added that the sale decreases BdL's foreign currency-denominated liabilities by between $1.7bn and $3bn, as the discounted CDs would be withdrawn, which supports its net foreign currency reserves.

  • Stock market index down 3% in first five months of 2018
    Figures released by the Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE) indicate that trading volume reached 52,743,268 shares in the first five months of 2018, constituting an increase of 42.1% from 37,130,048 shares traded in the same period of 2017; while aggregate turnover amounted to $386.6m, up by 28.5% from a turnover of $300.8m in the first five months of 2017. Market capitalization regressed by 6.4% from the end of May 2017 to $11bn, with banking stocks accounting for 84.3% of the total, followed by real estate equities (12.4%), industrial shares (2.9%) and trading firms' equities (0.3%). The market liquidity ratio was 3.5% in the covered period compared to 2.6% in the first five months of 2017.

    Banking stocks accounted for 83.1% of the aggregate trading volume in the first five months of 2018, followed by real estate equities with 14.4%, industrial shares with 2.4% and trading stocks with 0.1%. Also, banking stocks represented 78.2% of the aggregate value of shares traded, followed by real estate equities with 17.2%, industrial stocks with 4.5% and trading stocks with 0.03%. The average daily traded volume for the period was 538,197 shares for an average daily value of $3.9m. The figures reflect a rise of 44.9% in volume and an increase of 31.2% in value year-on-year in the first five months of the year. In parallel, the Capital Markets Authority's Market Value-Weighted Index for stocks traded on the BSE regressed by 2.8% in the first five months of 2018, while the CMA's Banks Market Value-Weighted Index dropped by 7.3% in the covered period.

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