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Lebanon This Week 548

August 11, 2018
Lebanon This Week 548

FDI Inflows to Lebanon

 

 
Source: Banque du Liban, National Accounts, Byblos Research,


  • Foreign direct investment at $2.6bn in 2017, equivalent to 4.7% of GDP
    Figures released by Banque du Liban show that foreign direct investments (FDI) in Lebanon totaled $2.56bn in 2017, nearly unchanged from $2.57bn in 2016. FDI inflows to Lebanon last year reached their fourth lowest level during the 2002-2017 period, compared to a high of $4.4bn in 2009 and a low of $1.3bn in 2002. 

    FDI inflows to the country averaged $2.98bn annually between 2002 and 2017, as they increased from an average of $2.2bn in the 2002-04 period to an average of $3.5bn in the 2005-12 period, but declined to an average of $2.6bn in the 2013-17 period. Further, FDI inflows to Lebanon expanded at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% during the 2002-17 period, as they posted a CAGR of 18.5% during the 2002-09 period and a CAGR of -6.5% during the 2009-17 period.

    Further, FDI inflows to Lebanon were equivalent to 4.7% of GDP in 2017, their second lowest level on record and relative to 5% of GDP in 2016 and to a high of 15.5% of GDP in 2005. In comparison, aggregate FDI inflows to Lebanon were equivalent to 8.4% of GDP between 2002 and 2017.

    In parallel, FDI outflows from Lebanon amounted to $1.06bn in 2017, up by 5.9% from $1bn in 2016. They were equivalent to 2% of GDP in 2017, unchanged from the previous year, and constituted their fifth lowest level on record. Also, aggregate FDI outflows from Lebanon were equivalent to 2.5% of GDP between 2002 and 2017.

    As such, net FDI inflows to Lebanon reached $1.49bn in 2017 and represented a decline of 4.4% from $1.56bn in 2016. They were equivalent to 2.7% of GDP in 2017, the second lowest level during the 2002-17 period. In comparison, aggregate net FDI inflows to Lebanon were equivalent to 5.9% of GDP between 2002 and 2017.
     

  • Smoking still prevalent in Lebanon despite anti-smoking law
    The U.S.-based Foundation for a Smoke-Free World's State of Smoking in 2018 report indicated that 57.5% of Lebanese males who are 18 years or older and 48.4% of Lebanese females are smokers. The share of smokers among males and females in Lebanon is the highest across the 13 countries that the survey covered. The study aims to understand smokers' experiences and challenges, analyze their awareness about the impact of smoking on their health, and assess the perceptions of risk and influence on choices. It is based on a survey of 17,000 participants in 13 countries worldwide, as well as on a qualitative assessment from focus groups that provides additional insights. The foundation commissioned the consulting and research agency Kantar Public to conduct the poll in the 13 countries. 

    In parallel, the survey showed that 68% of surveyed smokers in Lebanon said that they smoke every time they drink coffee or tea, the second highest such share among the 13 countries; while 63% smoke after a meal, the fifth highest such percentage, and 58% are tempted to smoke every time they see people smoking around them, the highest such share among covered countries. In comparison, 91% of surveyed smokers in Greece smoke every time they drink coffee or tea, 84% smoke after a meal and 76% smoke when having an alcoholic drink, while 64% of surveyed smokers in South Africa smoke after a meal, 59% smoke a few minutes after waking up and 49% smoke when having an alcoholic drink. 

    Also, 95% of surveyed smokers in Lebanon and 80% of non-smokers in the country said that they have close friends who smoke. The share of smokers and non-smokers in Lebanon who have close friends who smoke is the highest among the 13 countries.
     

  • Banking sector assets at $235bn at end-June 2018
    The consolidated balance sheet of commercial banks operating in Lebanon shows that total assets stood at $234.6bn at the end of June 2018, constituting an increase of 6.7% from the end of 2017 and an expansion of 12.7% from end-June 2017. Loans extended to the private sector reached $59.6bn at the end of June 2018, declining by a marginal 0.2% from end-2017 and growing by 2.8% from a year earlier. Loans to the resident private sector totaled $53.1bn, constituting a decrease of 0.9% from the end of 2017 and an increase of 1.4% year-on-year; while credit to the non-resident private sector reached $6.4bn at end-June 2018 and grew by 6.1% from end-2017 and by 15.8% from a year earlier. In nominal terms, credit to the private sector regressed by $127.8m in the first half of 2018, as lending to the resident private sector contracted by $497.7m and credit to the non-resident private sector grew by $370m in the covered period. The dollarization rate in private sector lending regressed from 69.7% at end-June 2017 to 67.6% at end-June 2018.

    In parallel, total private sector deposits reached $173.3bn at the end of June 2018, increasing by 2.8% from the end of 2017 and by 3.3% from a year earlier. Deposits in Lebanese pounds reached the equivalent of $54.7bn at end-June 2018, up by 3.7% from end-2017 but down by 2% from end-June 2017; while deposits in foreign currencies totaled $118.6bn, and grew by 2.3% from end-2017 and by 6% from $111.9bn a year earlier. Resident deposits totaled $136.6bn at the end of June 2018, increasing by 2.3% from the end of 2017 and by 2.7% from end-June 2017. Also, non-resident deposits reached $36.7bn at end-June 2018, up by 4.5% from end-2017 and by 5.7% from $34.8bn a year earlier. In nominal terms, private sector deposits grew by $475.4m in January, by $1.31bn in February, by $727.3m in March, by $229.2m in April, by $975.8m in May and by $934.5m in June 2018. As such, aggregate private sector deposits expanded by $4.65bn in the first half of 2018 relative to an increase of $5.24bn in the same period of 2017, with deposits in Lebanese pounds growing by $1.98bn and foreign-currency deposits increasing by $2.68bn. The dollarization rate of private sector deposits was 68.4% at the end of June 2018, relative to 68.7% at end-2017, and compared to 66.7% a year earlier.
     

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