Economic Research | Lebanon This Week | Lebanon This Week 585 | Draft budget for 2019 projects deficit of 7.6% of GDP | Lebanon | Byblos Bank

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Byblos Bank

Lebanon This Week 585

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Draft budget for 2019 projects deficit of 7.6% of GDP

The 2019 draft budget that the Council of Ministers approved on May 27, 2019 shows budget expenditures at LBP25,840bn or $17.1bn, and budget revenues at LBP19,016bn or $12.6bn, leading to a budget deficit of LBP6,824bn or $4.5bn. The budget is based on a real GDP growth rate of 1.2%, a nominal GDP of LBP89,935bn or $59.7bn, and an inflation rate of 1.75% in 2019. As such, budget spending would be equivalent to 28.7% of GDP and revenues would come at 21.1% of GDP in 2019, resulting in a deficit of 7.6% of GDP. In comparison, actual fiscal spending totaled $15.2bn in the first 11 months of 2018, the latest available figures, while revenues amounted to $10bn, leading to a fiscal deficit of $5.2bn.  

The breakdown of budgetary spending for 2019, excluding Treasury outlays, shows that current expenditures amount to LBP24,169bn ($16bn), equivalent to 93.5% of such spending. Also, capital spending, which includes investing in infrastructure, land expropriation and the purchase of equipment, reaches LBP1,671bn ($1.1bn), or 6.5% of total expenditures in 2019. The compensation of public-sector personnel, which includes salaries, wages & related benefits, as well as retirement & end-of-service indemnities, and transfers to public institutions to cover salaries, amounts to LBP10,054bn, or $6.7bn, representing 39% of total budget spending in 2019. It is followed by interest payments at LBP8,312bn, or $5.5bn (32% of total budget spending) and Transfers to Electricité du Liban (EdL) at LBP2,500bn, or $1.7bn (10% of total budget spending) this year. The estimate for interest payments in the 2019 draft budget incorporates the issuance of LBP12,000bn, or the equivalent of $8bn, worth of Treasury bills at a 1% coupon rate in coordination with Banque du Liban, which aims to generate significant savings in terms of interest payments. In comparison, the compensation of public-sector personnel stood at $5.9bn or 38.7% of total budget spending in the first 11 months of 2018, while interest payments reached $5.1bn (33.7%), and transfers to EdL amounted to $1.6bn (10.7%). 

On the revenues side, the 2019 draft budget forecast tax receipts at LBP14,824bn ($9.8bn), compared to LBP11,998bn ($8bn) in realized tax revenues in the first 11 months of 2018, while it projected non-tax revenues at LBP4,192bn ($2.8bn), relative to LBP3,053bn ($2bn) in the first 11 months of 2018. Receipts from the value-added tax and excise tax on goods & services would generate 42% of total tax revenues, followed by revenues from the tax on income, profits & capital gain (38%), and income from the property tax and custom duties (8% each), while other taxes would generate the remaining 5%. 
 
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