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Lebanon This Week 637

June 22, 2020

  • Remittance inflows to Lebanon up 6% to $7.4bn in 2019
    Figures released by Banque du Liban show that the inflows of expatriates' remittances to Lebanon totaled $7.4bn in 2019, constituting an increase of 6.2% from $7bn in 2018, relative to a decline of 1.2% in 2018. Remittance inflows to Lebanon increased by 6.6% year-on-year to $1.91bn in the first quarter of 2019, while they rose by 11.5% annually to $1.97bn in the second quarter, grew by 12.8% year-on-year to $1.93bn in the third quarter, and dropped by 6.3% annually to $1.6bn in the fourth quarter of 2019, their lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2012. The figures include workers' remittances and the compensation of employees, according to the World Bank's definition of remittances. Banque du Liban's figures are the only official data on remittance flows to and from Lebanon. 

    In addition, remittance inflows to Lebanon in 2019 reached their fifth highest annual level between 2002 and 2019, with a high of $7.6bn in 2016 and a low of $2.54bn in 2002. They averaged $6.4bn annually between 2002 and 2019, but they increased from an annual average of $4.8bn during the 2002-07 period to a yearly average of $7.2bn between 2008 and 2019. Further, remittance inflows were equivalent to 14.2% of GDP in 2019 compared to 12.7% of GDP in 2018. 

    In parallel, remittance outflows from Lebanon amounted to $4.3bn in 2019, down by 13.5% from $5bn in 2018, and relative to an increase of 12.4% in 2018. Remittance outflows from Lebanon declined by 1.6% annually to $1.2bn in the first quarter of 2019, while they decreased by 4.7% year-on-year to $1.17bn in the second quarter, regressed by 14.5% to $1.1bn in the third quarter, and dropped by 32.3% to $861m in the fourth quarter of 2019, their lowest level since the third quarter of 2007. 

    In addition, remittance outflows in 2019 reached their ninth highest annual level during the 2002-19 period, with a high of $5.75bn in 2009 and a low of $2.5bn in 2002. They averaged $4.2bn annually between 2002 and 2019, but they increased from an annual average of $3.5bn during the 2002-07 period to a yearly average of $4.5bn between 2008 and 2019. Further, remittance outflows from Lebanon were equivalent to 8.3% of GDP in 2019 compared to 9.1% of GDP in 2018. 

    As such, net remittance inflows to Lebanon totaled $3.1bn in 2019, constituting a jump of 56.1% from $2bn in 2018, and relative to a decrease of 24.5% in 2018. Net remittance inflows to Lebanon in 2019 reached their third highest annual level during the 2002-19 period, compared to $3.8bn in 2015 and $3.4bn in 2016. They averaged $2.2bn annually between 2002 and 2019, but they increased from an annual average of $1.25bn during the 2002-07 period to a yearly average of $2.67bn between 2008 and 2019. Net remittance inflows to Lebanon were equivalent to 5.9% of GDP in 2019, compared to 3.6% of GDP in 2018. 
     
    Source: Banque du Liban, National Accounts, IIF, Byblos Research

  • Consumer Price Index up 29% in first five months of 2020
    The Central Administration of Statistics' Consumer Price Index increased by 28.6% in the first five months of 2020, compared to a growth of 3.6% in the same period of 2019. Also, the CPI expanded by 56.5% in May 2020 from the same month of 2019, the highest increase since December 2008. The cumulative surge in inflation in the first five months of 2020 is due in part to the deterioration of the Lebanese pound's exchange rate on the parallel market that encouraged opportunistic wholesalers and retailers to raise consumer prices disproportionately. It also reflects the authorities' inability to monitor and to contain the price hikes. 

    The CAS claimed that it has faced challenges in data collection since March 2020 due to missing items at outlets, the temporary closure of retail outlets, and restrictions on the movement of data collectors. As such, it imputed the missing data by using the price changes of similar products. As such, it said that 47% of the prices included in the March CPI basket were imputed, 80% of prices in the April basket were imputed, and 62.3% of prices in the May CPI basket were imputed.

    According to CAS' adjusted methodology, prices at restaurants & hotels grew by 3.4 times annually in May 2020, followed by the prices of alcoholic beverages & tobacco (+3 times), food & non-alcoholic beverages (+2.9 times), the cost of clothing & footwear (+2.7 times), the prices of furnishings & household equipment (+2.4 times), miscellaneous goods & services (+93.6%), communication costs (+79.3%), recreation & entertainment (+60.5%), transportation (+30.2%), actual rents (+7.9%), healthcare costs (+5.8%), imputed rents (+5.2%), and the cost of education (+4%). In contrast, the prices of water, electricity, gas & other fuels decreased by 12.7% annually in May 2020. In addition, the distribution of actual rents shows that old rents grew by 10.4% and new rents increased by 6.2% in May 2020.
     

  • Compensation of public-sector personnel absorbs 72% of public revenues in first two months of 2020
    Figures issued by the Ministry of Finance show that the compensation of public-sector personnel totaled $1.22bn in the first two months of 2020, constituting an increase of 4.2% from $1.17bn in the same period of 2019. Salaries, wages and related benefits accounted for 64% of the total in the covered period, followed by retirement benefits (25.7%), end-of-service indemnities (5.9%), and transfers to public institutions to cover salaries (4.4%). 

    The annual rise in the compensation of public-sector personnel is due to an 11% increase in salaries, wages and related benefits, a 9.7% growth in retirement benefits and an 83.8% rise in transfers to public institutions to cover salaries, which were partly offset by an annual decline of 52.4% in end-of-service indemnities. The compensation of public-sector personnel represented the largest component of current primary spending and accounted for 63.3% of such expenditures in the first two months of 2020 compared to 72.3% in the same period of 2019. It accounted for 42.8% of fiscal spending in the covered period relative to 47.4% in the first two months of 2019; while it absorbed 72.3% of public revenues in the first two months of 2020 relative to 64.6% of government receipts in the same period of 2019. 

    In parallel, salaries, wages and related benefits paid to public-sector employees amounted to $777.4m in the first two months of 2020, up by 11% from $700.4m in the same period of 2019. This category includes basic salaries, employment benefits, allowances, contributions to civil servants' cooperatives, as well as contributions to other mutual funds providing health insurance for specific categories of civil servants, mainly civil and religious judges, and employees at the Parliament.

    Salaries and benefits of military personnel reached $563.1m and accounted for 72.4% of salaries, wages and related benefits paid to the public sector in the first two months of 2020. The salaries and benefits of personnel in public education followed with $108.1m (14% of the total), then civil staff with $75.6m (9.7%), the government's contribution to the employees' cooperative with $20m (2.6%), and the salaries and benefits of customs employees with $11.2m (1.5%).

    Also, the Lebanese Army's salaries totaled $364.8m in the first two months of 2020 and represented 64.8% of the salaries and benefits of military personnel. The salaries of the Internal Security Forces followed with $161.8m (28.7%), those of the General Security Forces with $27.1m (4.8%), and the salaries of State Security Forces with $9.2m (1.6%).

    In addition, the breakdown of salaries, wages and related benefits paid to public-sector employees shows that allowances increased by $98.1m annually; and benefits and other payments, such as bonuses, given to non-military bodies rose by $18m; while basic salaries dropped by $39m year-on-year. Basic salaries declined by 7.5% annually to $481m in the first two months of 2020, allowances rose by 81% to $219.5m, and benefits and other payments grew by 36.5% year-on-year to $67m in the first two months of 2020.

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