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Lebanon This Week 525

February 10, 2018
Lebanon This Week 525

Byblos Bank/AUB Consumer Confidence Index*

* Monthly score
Source: Byblos Bank Economic Research & Analysis Department, based on surveys conducted by Statistics Lebanon

  • Consumer confidence improved in fourth quarter of 2017
    The results of the Byblos Bank/AUB Consumer Confidence Index for the fourth quarter of 2017 show that the Index increased by 3.2% in October from the preceding month, improved by 10.9% in November and declined by 3.1% in December 2017. The Index averaged 61.8 in the fourth quarter of the year compared to an average of 58.4 in the third quarter of 2017 and of 50.4 in the fourth quarter of 2016.

    Household sentiment in the fourth quarter of 2017 was influenced by the sudden resignation of Prime Minster Saad Hariri in early November. The shock resignation triggered a political crisis that reverberated across Lebanon, as the massive flow of rumors about the circumstances and consequences of the resignation weighed on household sentiment in the first three weeks of the month and risked a significant slide in the Index.

    But the resolution of the crisis towards the end of November 2017, as well as Lebanon's renewed commitment to the “dissociation policy” from regional conflicts, eased the political crisis and economic uncertainties that prevailed during the month. Further, the November 2017 results captured the sentiment registered during the resolution of the crisis, rather than at the height of the rumors and uncertainties, given that the Byblos Bank/AUB Consumer Confidence Index's survey takes place at the end of each month.

  • Banking sector assets reach $220bn at end-2017, equivalent to 413% of GDP
    The consolidated balance sheet of commercial banks operating in Lebanon shows that total assets stood at $219.9bn at end-2017, constituting a rise of 7.6% from the end of 2016. The banking sector's assets were equivalent to 412.5% of GDP in 2017 relative to 408.6% in 2016.

    Loans extended to the private sector reached $60.3bn at the end of 2017, reflecting an increase of 5.5% from a year earlier. Lending to the private sector was equivalent to 113.2% of GDP in 2017 relative to 114.4% of GDP in 2016.

    In parallel, private sector deposits of the non-financial sector totaled $168.7bn at the end of 2017, constituting an increase of 3.8% from end-2016. Private sector deposits were equivalent to 316.4% of GDP last year relative to 325% of GDP in 2016. Deposits in Lebanese pounds reached $52.8bn at end-2017, down by 5% year-on-year; while deposits in foreign currencies stood at $115.9bn and grew by 8.4% from the end of 2016. Aggregate non-resident deposits reached $35.2bn at the end of 2017, up by 3.5% from end-2016. 

  • Lebanon ranks 142nd globally, seventh among Arab countries on electoral freedom
    The World Electoral Freedom Index for 2018, a broad indicator of the electoral freedom available to citizens and to registered political parties, ranked Lebanon in 142nd place among 198 countries globally and in seventh place among 20 Arab countries. Also, Lebanon came in 39th place among 55 upper middle-income countries (UMICs) included in the survey.

    The index, published by the Madrid-based Foundation for the Advancement of Liberty, evaluates countries on the basis of 55 indicators that are grouped into four sub-indices, that are Political Development with a weight of 10%, Active Suffrage with a weight of 30%, Passive Suffrage with a weight of 30% and Elector Empowerment with a weight of 30%. A country's score ranges between zero and 100, with 100 reflecting the highest electoral freedom.

    Globally, Lebanon has a higher level of electoral freedom than Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Mozambique, and a lower level than Jordan, Côte d’Ivoire and Zambia. It also has a higher level of electoral freedom than Iraq, Turkmenistan and Gabon, and a lower level than Malaysia, Russia and Turkey among UMICs. Lebanon's score of 59.2 points is lower than the global average score of 62.1 points and the UMICs' average of 61.9 points, but it is higher than the Arab average of 49.9 points. Also, Lebanon's score is higher than the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries' average score of 30.3 points and that of non-GCC Arab countries of 58.3 points.

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