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Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 533

April 26, 2018
Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 533
Turkish Lira to US Dollar

Source: Thomson Reuters, Byblos Bank

  • Currency depreciation in Turkey to weigh on asset quality, profitability and capitalization of banks
    Moody's Investors Service considered that the depreciation of the Turkish lira is credit negative for Turkish banks, as the ongoing currency weakness, along with high inflation, would weigh on the banks' asset quality, profitability, capitalization and access to foreign funding. It indicated that the lira depreciated by 12% year-on-year and by 8% month-on-month to a record-low of TRY4.15 against the US dollar on April 11, 2018. First, the agency noted that a sustained depreciation of the lira would reduce the repayment ability of corporate borrowers that do not generate revenues in foreign currency and, in turn, would increase problem loans. Second, it anticipated the currency depreciation to raise inflation and erode the profitability of corporates and the purchasing power of consumers. It projected the inflation rate to reach 8% at end-2018 relative to the Central Bank of Turkey's target of 5%. Third, Moody's anticipated the depreciation of the lira to reduce the banks' capital ratios, as it expected the value of foreign-currency denominated risk-weighted assets to increase when converted to local currency, and for the lira-denominated regulatory capital to be unchanged. It considered that a deterioration in the banks' capital ratio would reduce their ability to lend and would weigh on economic growth. Fourth, the agency said that the banks' access to foreign currency funding could decline due to investors' concerns about the solvency of Turkish banks, which constitutes a significant challenge for the banks given their large foreign-currency refinancing needs. 
    Source: Moody's Investors Service

  • Net earnings of Abu Dhabi listed companies up 178%, profits of Dubai firms up 6.5% in 2017
    The net income of 66 companies listed on the Abu Dhabi stock exchange totaled AED37.2bn, or $10bn in 2017, constituting an increase of 178.1% from AED13.4bn or $3.6bn in 2016. Listed banks generated net profits of $5.3bn and accounted for 53% of the total earnings of publicly-listed firms. They were followed by telecommunication companies with $2.9bn (28.6%), services firms with $604.6m (6%), real estate companies with $552.7m (5.5%), industrial firms with $197.8m (2%), insurers with $152m (1.5%), investment & financial services firms with $128.2m and energy corporates with $125.5m (1.3% each), and consumer goods firms with $86.4m (0.9%). In parallel, the cumulative net income of 62 companies listed on the Dubai Financial Market totaled AED31.4bn, or $8.5bn, in 2017, constituting an increase of 6.5% from AED29.5bn or $8bn in 2016. Listed banks generated net profits of $4.6bn, or 53.7% of total net earnings last year. Real estate & construction companies followed with $2.7bn or 32.1% of the total, then transportation companies with $523.8m (6.2%), telecom firms with $439.7m (5.2%), investment & financial services institutions with $291m (3.4%), insurers with $203.4m (2.4%), and services firms with $117m (1.4%). 
    Source: KAMCO

  • Iranian authorities unify dual exchange rates to address currency weakening
    Research and analytics provider IHS Markit indicated that Iranian authorities unified the official exchange rate and the semi-official market rate to form a new fixed rate. It said that the unification of rates aims to address the significant weakening of the Iranian rial since January 2018 amid heightened geopolitical and domestic risks. It noted that the unified fixed exchange rate of IRR42,000 against the US dollar constitutes a 20% appreciation from the semi-official market rate of IRR52,500 per dollar, as well as an 11% devaluation from the official exchange rate of IRR37,830 against the dollar. It indicated that the government introduced remedial measures in February 2018, such as raising interest rates on local-currency deposits, which had temporarily eased pressures on the rial. However, it noted that the US dollar premium on the parallel market widened significantly in March. It pointed out that the semi-official rate depreciated by 14% to IRR52,500 against the dollar between March 1 and April 9, 2018, while the black market rate traded at a high of IRR60,000 against the dollar on April 9. Further, IHS indicated that the lack of transparency and confidence in the new unified fixed exchange rate could lead to increased pressure on the currency. It added that maintaining the fixed exchange rate would be difficult amid ongoing geopolitical, domestic and financial risks. 
    Source: IHS Markit

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