Economic Research | Country Risk Weekly Bulletin | Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 533 | Iranian authorities unify dual exchange rates to address currency weakening | Lebanon | Byblos Bank

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Byblos Bank

Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 533

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Iranian authorities unify dual exchange rates to address currency weakening

Research and analytics provider IHS Markit indicated that Iranian authorities unified the official exchange rate and the semi-official market rate to form a new fixed rate. It said that the unification of rates aims to address the significant weakening of the Iranian rial since January 2018 amid heightened geopolitical and domestic risks. It noted that the unified fixed exchange rate of IRR42,000 against the US dollar constitutes a 20% appreciation from the semi-official market rate of IRR52,500 per dollar, as well as an 11% devaluation from the official exchange rate of IRR37,830 against the dollar. It indicated that the government introduced remedial measures in February 2018, such as raising interest rates on local-currency deposits, which had temporarily eased pressures on the rial. However, it noted that the US dollar premium on the parallel market widened significantly in March. It pointed out that the semi-official rate depreciated by 14% to IRR52,500 against the dollar between March 1 and April 9, 2018, while the black market rate traded at a high of IRR60,000 against the dollar on April 9. Further, IHS indicated that the lack of transparency and confidence in the new unified fixed exchange rate could lead to increased pressure on the currency. It added that maintaining the fixed exchange rate would be difficult amid ongoing geopolitical, domestic and financial risks. 
Source: IHS Markit
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