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Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 544

July 12, 2018
Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 544

  • Insurance premiums in MENA markets up 4% to $39bn in 2017, penetration rate at 1.9% of GDP
    Swiss Re's annual survey of the global insurance market indicated that insurance premiums generated in 11 Arab markets included in the survey totaled $35.9bn in 2017, constituting an increase of 3.9% from $34.5bn in 2016. The region's aggregate premiums accounted for 0.7% of global premiums and for 6.8% of premiums in emerging markets excluding China in 2017. Insurance firms in the UAE accounted for 37.7% of aggregate premiums in Arab markets last year, followed by Saudi Arabia (27.1%), Morocco (10.4%), Lebanon (4.6%), Egypt (4.4%), Algeria and Oman (3.4% each), Jordan (2.4%), Kuwait and Tunisia (2.3% each), and Bahrain (2.1%). Further, Arab markets generated $28.8bn in non-life premiums in 2017, up by 4.9% from $27.5bn in 2016. Non-life premiums produced in the Arab world accounted for 1.3% of global non-life premiums and for 11.5% of non-life premiums in emerging markets excluding China last year. Also, aggregate life premiums generated in Arab markets stood at $7.05bn in 2017, nearly unchanged from 2016, and accounted for 0.3% of global life premiums and for 2.5% of life premiums in emerging markets excluding China. In parallel, insurance penetration in Arab markets, or premiums relative to the size of the economy, stood at 1.9% of aggregate GDP in 2017 compared to penetration rates of 6.1% of GDP for global markets and 2.6% of GDP for emerging markets excluding China. Further, insurance density in Arab markets, or premiums per capita, reached $141.2 in 2017 compared to $649.8 and $104.8, respectively, for global and emerging markets excluding China. 
    Source: Swiss Re, Byblos Research
     

  • Tier One capital of banks at $322bn at end-2017
    The Banker magazine's annual survey of the Top 1000 Banks in the world by Tier One capital indicated that the aggregate Tier One capital of Middle Eastern banks included in the survey stood at $322.4bn at the end of 2017 compared to $313bn at end-2016. It noted that the Tier One capital of the region's banks included in the survey accounted for 4% of the aggregate Tier One capital of the world's Top 1000 banks, which is lower than the share of banks in Asia (44.3%), Western Europe (26.8%) and North America (19.6%), but higher than that of banks in Latin America & the Caribbean (2.4%), Central & Eastern Europe (1.9%) and Africa (0.9%). Also, the total assets of Middle Eastern banks in the survey reached $2,842bn at end-2017 and accounted for 2.3% of the aggregate assets of the world's top 1000 banks. As such, the Tier One capital-to-assets ratio (CAR) of Middle Eastern banks was 11.7% at end-2017, higher than the Top 1000 banks' CAR of 6.66%, as well as of banks in Central & Eastern Europe (10.9%), Africa (8.1%), North America (7.5%), Latin America & the Caribbean (7.5%), Asia (6.6%) and Western Europe (5.5%). First Abu Dhabi Bank ranked in first place regionally and in 81st place globally with a Tier One capital of $20.5bn, followed by Qatar National Bank with $20.1bn (82nd place), the National Commercial Bank of Saudi Arabia with $17bn (94th place), Saudi Arabia's Al Rajhi Bank with $14.9bn (104th place) and Emirates NBD with $14bn (109th place). The Middle Eastern banks' return on capital (ROC) stood at 13.03% in 2017 relative to the Top 1000 banks' ROC of 13.5%, and their return on assets was 1.52% compared to 0.9% globally. 
    Source: The Banker, Byblos Research
     

  • Expatriates lose 700,000 jobs in five quarters
    Regional investment bank EFG Hermes indicated that Saudi Arabia's expatriate labor force lost 234,000 jobs in the first quarter of 2018, following a record high of 277,000 job losses in the fourth quarter of 2017. It added that expatriates have lost a total of 700,000 jobs in the five quarters ending in March 2018. It noted that job losses were concentrated in the construction, trade and manufacturing sectors, and were in both the public and private sectors. Further, it said that 811,000 expatriates, excluding family members and unregistered workers, left the Kingdom in the previous 18 months. In addition, it indicated that nationals lost about 13,000 jobs in the first quarter of 2018. As such, it said that unemployment among nationals increased slightly to 12.9% in the first quarter of 2018, reflecting the economy's slow job creation for nationals. EFG expected expatriate job losses to remain elevated during 2018, driven by the further nationalization of jobs and subdued macroeconomic fundamentals, mainly in the construction and trade sectors. In parallel, it indicated that non-oil real GDP growth decelerated from 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2017 to 1.6% in the first quarter of 2018, as the economy started to absorb the impact of fiscal measures implemented earlier this year. Still, it expected growth to gradually recover in coming quarters, and noted that the pace of recovery will depend on the speed at which the government deploys its ambitious investment spending. As such, it maintained its real non-oil GDP growth forecast at 2.2% for 2018.
    Source: EFG Hermes
     

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