Regional investment bank EFG Hermes indicated that Saudi Arabia's expatriate labor force lost 234,000 jobs in the first quarter of 2018, following a record high of 277,000 job losses in the fourth quarter of 2017. It added that expatriates have lost a total of 700,000 jobs in the five quarters ending in March 2018. It noted that job losses were concentrated in the construction, trade and manufacturing sectors, and were in both the public and private sectors. Further, it said that 811,000 expatriates, excluding family members and unregistered workers, left the Kingdom in the previous 18 months. In addition, it indicated that nationals lost about 13,000 jobs in the first quarter of 2018. As such, it said that unemployment among nationals increased slightly to 12.9% in the first quarter of 2018, reflecting the economy's slow job creation for nationals. EFG expected expatriate job losses to remain elevated during 2018, driven by the further nationalization of jobs and subdued macroeconomic fundamentals, mainly in the construction and trade sectors. In parallel, it indicated that non-oil real GDP growth decelerated from 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2017 to 1.6% in the first quarter of 2018, as the economy started to absorb the impact of fiscal measures implemented earlier this year. Still, it expected growth to gradually recover in coming quarters, and noted that the pace of recovery will depend on the speed at which the government deploys its ambitious investment spending. As such, it maintained its real non-oil GDP growth forecast at 2.2% for 2018.
Source: EFG Hermes