The Euromoney Group's quarterly survey on global country risk shows that the risk level in the Arab world was stable in the third quarter of 2018, as the average score of 19 Arab economies was unchanged quarter-on-quarter at 39.2 points. A higher score represents a lower country risk level. The region's risk level was higher than the global risk level of 43.2 points in the covered quarter. It was also higher than the risk levels of North America (79.1 points), Western Europe (73.1 points), Central & Eastern Europe (49.2 points), Latin America (45.5 points), and Asia (43 points). In contrast, it was lower than the risk levels of the Caribbean (36.5 points), Sub-Saharan Africa (30.5 points), and Australasia (27.8 points). The average scores of GCC countries and non-GCC Arab countries were also unchanged from the preceding quarter at 58.8 points and 30.1 points, respectively. The Arab world's Political Risks score of 11.64 points was lower than the global average of 13.73 points, while its Economic Performance score of 12.74 points was below the global average of 13.43 points. Further, the region's Credit Ratings score averaged 2.47 points relative to the global average of 3.06 points; while the Access to Bank Finance & Capital Markets score was 4.41 points, higher than the global average of 4.25 points. Qatar had the lowest country risk level in the Arab world and the 29th lowest globally, followed by Kuwait (33rd), the UAE (38th), Saudi Arabia (48th) and Oman (50th). 
Source: Euromoney Group, Byblos Research     

The World Bank indicated that Armenia's economic outlook is broadly positive, as it anticipated that prudent macroeconomic policies, low inflation rates, and favorable terms of trade will continue to support economic activity. It added that the exchange rate has been broadly stable so far this year, while spillovers from the turmoil in Russia and Turkey have been contained. It projected real GDP growth at 5.3% in 2018, driven by robust external demand, favorable metal prices, higher investment and increased private consumption. It forecast growth to average 4.5% annually in the 2019-20 period in case authorities continue to implement structural reforms. 

In parallel, the Bank anticipated the fiscal deficit to narrow from 4.8% of GDP in 2017 to 2.6% of GDP in 2018 and to 2.2% of GDP in 2020, driven by the government's commitment to fiscal prudence, especially the fiscal rule that caps the public debt level at 60% of GDP. In this context, it forecast the public debt level to regress from 58.9% of GDP in 2017 to 56.6% of GDP in 2018 and 55% of GDP by 2020. Further, it expected the current account deficit to widen from 2.8% of GDP in 2017 to 3.8% of GDP in 2018, as a higher import bill will more than offset strong exports and remittance inflows. It anticipated the deficit to remain around its current levels in 2019 and 2020. It noted that foreign currency reserves stood at more than $2bn at end-July 2018, unchanged from a year earlier, and covered about 3.5 months of imports. The World Bank pointed out that risks to the outlook include a steeper-than-anticipated economic slowdown in Armenia's key trading partners, specifically Russia and Iran, as well as a decline in global copper prices, and elevated domestic political risks. 
Source: World Bank

In its 2018 survey of the Top 1000 commercial banks in the world, The Banker magazine included 12 banks from Saudi Arabia on the list, with eight banks ranked among the top 25 banks in the Middle East. The rankings are based on the banks' Tier One capital at end-2017, as defined by the Basel Bank of International Settlements. The aggregate Tier One capital of Saudi banks totaled $95.1bn at the end of 2017 relative to about $90.1bn a year earlier, and accounted for 28.6% of the Tier One capital of banks in the Middle East. Also, the aggregate assets of the 12 banks reached $593bn at the end of 2017 and accounted for 21% of the aggregate assets of banks in the region. As such, Saudi banks' combined Tier One capital-to-assets ratio was 16% at end-2017, higher than the ratio of 11.7% of banks in the Middle East and the Top 1000 banks' ratio of 6.7%. Also, the cumulative pre-tax profits of the 12 banks reached $12bn in 2017. The ratio of pre-tax profits-to-Tier One capital of Saudi banks reached 12.6% in 2017, compared to the Top 1000 banks' ratio of 13.5%. The 12 banks operating in Saudi Arabia accounted for 1.2% of the Tier One capital of the Top 1000 banks, for 0.48% of their total assets and for 1.1% of their pre-tax profits at end-2017. 
Source: The Banker