The World Bank indicated that Armenia's economic outlook is broadly positive, as it anticipated that prudent macroeconomic policies, low inflation rates, and favorable terms of trade will continue to support economic activity. It added that the exchange rate has been broadly stable so far this year, while spillovers from the turmoil in Russia and Turkey have been contained. It projected real GDP growth at 5.3% in 2018, driven by robust external demand, favorable metal prices, higher investment and increased private consumption. It forecast growth to average 4.5% annually in the 2019-20 period in case authorities continue to implement structural reforms. 

In parallel, the Bank anticipated the fiscal deficit to narrow from 4.8% of GDP in 2017 to 2.6% of GDP in 2018 and to 2.2% of GDP in 2020, driven by the government's commitment to fiscal prudence, especially the fiscal rule that caps the public debt level at 60% of GDP. In this context, it forecast the public debt level to regress from 58.9% of GDP in 2017 to 56.6% of GDP in 2018 and 55% of GDP by 2020. Further, it expected the current account deficit to widen from 2.8% of GDP in 2017 to 3.8% of GDP in 2018, as a higher import bill will more than offset strong exports and remittance inflows. It anticipated the deficit to remain around its current levels in 2019 and 2020. It noted that foreign currency reserves stood at more than $2bn at end-July 2018, unchanged from a year earlier, and covered about 3.5 months of imports. The World Bank pointed out that risks to the outlook include a steeper-than-anticipated economic slowdown in Armenia's key trading partners, specifically Russia and Iran, as well as a decline in global copper prices, and elevated domestic political risks. 
Source: World Bank