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Lebanon This Week 532

April 14, 2018
Lebanon This Week 532
Source: Newswires, Byblos Research

  • International community mobilizes $11bn in support of the Lebanese economy
    Within the context of international support for the stability of Lebanon’s economy and its public finances, the Conférence Economique pour le Développement par les Réformes et avec les Entreprises (CEDRE), which took place on April 6 in Paris, yielded $11.06bn in pledges from the international community to Lebanon. The pledges aim to finance mainly infrastructure projects that the Lebanese government submitted in its Capital Investment Program (CIP). Lebanon's structural challenges, which consist of a wide fiscal deficit and elevated public debt level, have constrained capital spending to less than 1% of GDP per year, while economic growth has been subdued over the past few years. In addition, the Syrian conflict has had significant repercussions on Lebanon, including a massive influx of refugees that further reduced the efficiency of infrastructure and social services in the country. 

    A total of 48 countries and international and regional financial institutions participated in the CEDRE conference. About 17 countries and institutions pledged a total of $10.2bn in loans, of which $9.9bn are on concessional terms and about $860m in grants. The participants considered concessional loans and private investments to be the most appropriate options to finance infrastructure projects and to create jobs, given Lebanon’s fiscal constraints.

    In parallel, Lebanon pledged to narrow the fiscal deficit by 1% of GDP annually over the next five years, as part of the government’s fiscal consolidation and financial reforms that aim to support macroeconomic stability, gradually reduce the public debt level and help implement the CIP. Fiscal measures include improving tax collection and reducing Treasury transfers to Electricité du Liban. In addition, the government committed to implement structural reforms, which the participants considered to be crucial to attract new public and private investments.

    Further, participants at the CEDRE conference stressed the importance of a "robust follow-up mechanism" to ensure the implementation of reforms and the proper disbursement of pledges. In this context, the Lebanese government intends to improve the procedures for the clearance, approval and implementation of externally funded projects with the help of donors and investors. Also, a dedicated website will be established to track project financing and implementation, which aims to ensure transparency. 

    In addition, donors announced that they intend to work with the new government that will be formed after the May parliamentary elections on the implementation of the CIP and of the reform agenda, including developing a concrete time-table for reforms.
     

  • CEDRE conference is opportunity to address economic and fiscal challenges
    Global financial services firm Bank of America Merrill Lynch considered that the CEDRE donor conference provides an opportunity for Lebanese authorities to address the country’s elevated public debt level and subdued economic growth through medium-term fiscal reforms as well as through investments co-funded by concessional loans and the private sector. 

    Bank of America Merrill Lynch noted that the international community pledged over a period of five to six years $11bn, equivalent to 20% of the country’s GDP that are linked to economic reforms. It added that the pledged amount would increase to $12.5bn when including a $1bn credit line that Saudi Arabia reinstated during the conference, and a potential $500m in additional funding from the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development. It considered Saudi Arabia's pledge to be symbolic for the time being, as Lebanon has not used the pre-existing credit line in the past. It noted that the Lebanese government was guiding market expectations towards $5bn to $8bn in pledges prior to the conference, and that the aggregate committed amount came at the higher end of expectations.  

    Also, it pointed out that authorities need to implement fiscal consolidation measures in order to minimize the impact of additional borrowing on Lebanon's public debt level. However, it indicated that Lebanese authorities have not yet submitted a clear agenda for reforms, which could be due to considerations linked to the approaching parliamentary elections and to potential political opposition to a number of the proposed fiscal measures. It added that the international community tied the disbursement of funds to reforms because the Lebanese government did not enact fiscal measures after similar donor conferences in the past. It considered that the lack of direct oversight from the International Monetary Fund on any of Lebanon's planned fiscal measures provides the government with the flexibility to adjust reforms and financial support according to economic conditions and to its priorities. Overall, it did not expect donors to disburse funds before the completion of preparatory works that could take 18 to 24 months. 

    In parallel, Moody’s Investors Service considered that the $11bn in pledges earmarked to finance Lebanon’s infrastructure projects is credit positive for the sovereign, as it helps restart public investments and encourages fiscal reforms. It noted that the efficiency of Lebanon's public investment is low, which negatively affects its public finances.
     

  • Insurance premiums up 4% to $1.63bn in 2017, claims up 9% to $966m
    Figures released by the Association of Insurance Companies in Lebanon (ACAL) indicate that insurance premiums generated in Lebanon totaled $1.63bn in 2017, constituting an increase of 4% from $1.57bn in 2016. Premiums reached $447m in the first quarter, $400.6m in the second quarter, $401m in the third quarter and $382.7m in the fourth quarter of 2017.

    Life insurance premiums totaled $504.9m in 2017 and accounted for 30.9% of the sector's aggregate premiums. Medical insurance premiums followed with $478.1m (29.3%), then motor insurance premiums with $376.6m (23.1%), fire premiums with $109.3m (6.7%), workmen compensation with $52.6m (3.2%), cargo premiums with $37m (2.3%), public liability premiums with $20m (1.2%) and engineering premiums with $8.8m (0.5%), while premiums from other categories amounted to $44.1m and accounted for 2.7% of the total.
     

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