Economic Research | Lebanon This Week | Lebanon This Week 532 | CEDRE conference is opportunity to address economic and fiscal challenges | Lebanon | Byblos Bank

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Byblos Bank

Lebanon This Week 532

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CEDRE conference is opportunity to address economic and fiscal challenges

Global financial services firm Bank of America Merrill Lynch considered that the CEDRE donor conference provides an opportunity for Lebanese authorities to address the country’s elevated public debt level and subdued economic growth through medium-term fiscal reforms as well as through investments co-funded by concessional loans and the private sector. 

Bank of America Merrill Lynch noted that the international community pledged over a period of five to six years $11bn, equivalent to 20% of the country’s GDP that are linked to economic reforms. It added that the pledged amount would increase to $12.5bn when including a $1bn credit line that Saudi Arabia reinstated during the conference, and a potential $500m in additional funding from the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development. It considered Saudi Arabia's pledge to be symbolic for the time being, as Lebanon has not used the pre-existing credit line in the past. It noted that the Lebanese government was guiding market expectations towards $5bn to $8bn in pledges prior to the conference, and that the aggregate committed amount came at the higher end of expectations.  

Also, it pointed out that authorities need to implement fiscal consolidation measures in order to minimize the impact of additional borrowing on Lebanon's public debt level. However, it indicated that Lebanese authorities have not yet submitted a clear agenda for reforms, which could be due to considerations linked to the approaching parliamentary elections and to potential political opposition to a number of the proposed fiscal measures. It added that the international community tied the disbursement of funds to reforms because the Lebanese government did not enact fiscal measures after similar donor conferences in the past. It considered that the lack of direct oversight from the International Monetary Fund on any of Lebanon's planned fiscal measures provides the government with the flexibility to adjust reforms and financial support according to economic conditions and to its priorities. Overall, it did not expect donors to disburse funds before the completion of preparatory works that could take 18 to 24 months. 

In parallel, Moody’s Investors Service considered that the $11bn in pledges earmarked to finance Lebanon’s infrastructure projects is credit positive for the sovereign, as it helps restart public investments and encourages fiscal reforms. It noted that the efficiency of Lebanon's public investment is low, which negatively affects its public finances.
 
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