Global reinsurer Swiss Re forecast non-life insurance premiums in emerging markets (EMs) to post a real growth rate of 8% annually in the 2019-20 period, relative to an estimated rate of 7.8% in 2018, supported by stronger non-life business in China and India, and improving non-life sector growth dynamics in Africa and Latin America. In comparison, it forecast global non-life insurance premiums to increase by a real rate of about 3% annually in the 2019-20 period, and for non-life premiums in advanced markets to expand by 2% to 3% in the coming two years. 

In parallel, Swiss Re expected life insurance premiums in EMs to increase by 1.3% in real terms in 2018, compared to an expansion rate of 1.6% in global life insurance premiums and to 1.7% in life premiums in advanced markets. It attributed the slow growth in EM life premiums this year to a 1.8% contraction in life premiums in China due to tighter regulations on wealth management products. It said that the real growth rate of EM life premiums would increase by 5% in 2018 when excluding China. In addition, Swiss Re expected life insurance premiums in EMs to expand by 9% in real terms annually during the 2019-20 period, and to be driven by a recovery in China. In comparison, it forecast global premiums from the life insurance segment to rise by a real rate of 3% annually in the next two years, and for life premiums in advanced markets to increase by between 1% and 2%. Overall, Swiss Re projected insurance premium growth in EMs at about 7% in real terms in 2018 due to the maturity of insurance market regulations, product development and consumer awareness. It forecast EMs to account for 28% of global insurance premiums by 2028 compared to a share of 18.8% in 2017.
Source: Swiss Re