Economic Research | Lebanon This Week | Lebanon This Week 535 | Capital Intelligence affirms Lebanon's sovereign ratings, outlook 'stable' | Lebanon | Byblos Bank

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Lebanon This Week 535

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Capital Intelligence affirms Lebanon's sovereign ratings, outlook 'stable'

Capital Intelligence Ratings (CI) affirmed at 'B' Lebanon's long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign ratings, and maintained the 'stable' outlook on the long-term ratings. It attributed the affirmation of the sovereign ratings to Lebanon's improved medium- to long-term growth prospects following the CEDRE conference that was held in Paris in April 2018. It noted that the $11bn in commitments made at the CEDRE conference in the form of reform-conditional soft loans and grants are credit positive, as they would improve growth prospects, accelerate the pace of economic and fiscal reforms, and help the country cope better with the socio-economic toll of hosting the large number of Syrian refugees. Also, it said that its rating action takes into account the relative stabilization of domestic political risks and improved policy-making, as well as the country's stable buffer of foreign currency reserves that provides adequate coverage to the external debt.

The agency indicated that the ratings are supported by Lebanon's adequate external liquidity, supportive investor base and strong donor support, stable non-resident deposit flows even during episode of political and security shocks, as well as by the government's perfect track record of public debt repayment. But it said that the ratings are constrained by Lebanon's elevated public debt level, large financing needs, limited fiscal flexibility, socio-economic challenges, the slow pace of economic and fiscal reforms, as well as by persistent local and regional political risks.
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