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Lebanon This Week 632

May 18, 2020

  • Housing demand drops to lowest level on record in first quarter of 2020
    Demand for residential real estate in Lebanon dropped in the first quarter of 2020 to its lowest level on record, as reflected by the results of the Byblos Bank Real Estate Demand Index. The Index posted a monthly average of 27.3 points in the first quarter of 2020, constituting a decrease of 16.5% from 32.7 points in the fourth quarter of 2019 and a decline of 51.3% from 56.1 points in the first quarter of 2019. This follows the Index's retreat by 22% in the fourth quarter and by 10.2% in the third quarter of 2019. The Index reached 29.5 in January 2020, down by 38.6% from the same month of 2019, while it dropped by 57.2% annually to 28.8 in February and by 55.5% to 23.6 in March 2020, its third lowest level on record.
     
    The Index's average monthly score in the first quarter of 2020 came 79.2% lower than the quarterly peak of 131 points registered in the second quarter of 2010, and was 75.2% below the annual peak of 109.8 points posted in 2010. Also, it was 52.7% lower than the Index's monthly trend average score of 57.7 points since the Index's inception in July 2007. 

    Several factors drove demand for residential real estate to fall to its lowest level since the Index's inception in July 2007. First, the deteriorating socioeconomic conditions that led to the eruption of nationwide protests in October 2019 worsened in the fourth quarter of last year and into the first quarter of this year, which shifted the attention of citizens away from major investment decisions. Second, the jump in consumer prices and in the cost of living resulted in the rapid deterioration of the purchasing power of citizens and a drop in household confidence, which made potential real estate buyers reluctant to build or acquire a residential unit as they have been forced to address more urgent and basic needs. Third, the continued absence of a comprehensive housing policy and of government measures, such as tax incentives, to support demand for any segment of the residential market in Lebanon have deterred demand. Fourth, the migration of some deposits out of the banking sector towards real estate in recent months targeted land and built property, but this did not have a significant impact on the residential market. 
     
    Source: Byblos Bank Economic Research & Analysis Department, based on surveys conducted by Statistics Lebanon

  • Lebanon receives 9% of IMF regional technical assistance in FY2019/20
    The International Monetary Fund's Middle East Technical Assistance Center (METAC) indicated that Lebanon received 8.9% of the center's overall allocation of technical assistance delivery to member countries during the fiscal year that ended in April 2020. The center provided eight technical assistance projects to Lebanon during FY2019/20, compared to the 10 technical assistance projects that were planned for the country during the fiscal year. METAC provided two projects in public financial management between May and July 2019; one project in revenue administration and another in statistics between August and October 2019; a project in public financial management between November 2019 and January 2020; as well as two projects in public financial management and one in statistics between February and April 2020. 
     
    In terms of public financial management between February and April 2020, METAC advised Lebanon on updating its macro-fiscal framework amid the coronavirus crisis using various scenarios to reflect the uncertain outlook. It said that Lebanese officials also benefited from the experience of staff in the Egyptian macro-fiscal unit in this matter. It also indicated that 11 senior officials from seven government institutions in Lebanon attended a workshop on gender-responsible budgeting, which was co-organized with the Institut des Finances Basil Fuleihan. It noted that activities under this technical assistance project will continue in FY2020/21 through a roadmap that participants jointly developed during the workshop, which aims to assist Lebanon to better promote inclusive growth at ministerial levels. In terms of statistics in the last quarter of the fiscal year, the mission advised the Central Administration of Statistics of Lebanon on developing an independent measure of gross domestic product by expenditures, which led to the establishment of a system to estimate the final consumption expenditures of households.
     

  • Lebanon ranks 108th globally, seventh in Arab world in budget transparency
    The International Budget Partnership's Open Budget Index for 2019 ranked Lebanon in 108th place among 117 countries globally and in seventh place among 13 Arab countries included in the survey. Lebanon ranked in 104th place among 115 countries globally and in eighth place among 13 Arab countries in the 2017 survey. It also came in 33rd place among 36 upper middle-income countries (UMICs) included in the current survey. 
     
    The Open Budget Index score reflects the timeliness and comprehensiveness of publicly-available budget information in eight key budget documents that countries should make available to the public. The documents are the Pre-Budget Statement, the Executive's Budget Proposal, the Enacted Budget, the Citizens Budget, In-Year Reports, a Mid-Year Review, a Year-End Report and an Audit Report. 

    Globally, Lebanon's level of budget transparency is higher than the budget transparency of Equatorial Guinea, the Gambia, Somalia, Algeria, Sudan, Qatar, Comoros, Venezuela and Yemen. Lebanon's level of budget transparency reached 6% in the 2019 survey compared to 3% in the 2017 survey, 2% in 2015 and 33% in the 2012 survey. Lebanon's score places it in the category of governments that provide 'scant or no' budgetary information, along with 19 countries worldwide that include eight Arab countries. Lebanon's level of budget transparency came below the global average of 44.6%, the UMICs' average of 48.4%, and the Arab region's average of 17.1%. 
     
    The survey indicated that the availability of budget information in Lebanon regressed between the 2012 and 2019 surveys. It said that the government failed to issue the Executive's Budget Proposal to the public, and to publish the Enacted Budget and the In-Year reports in a timely manner. It added that the government did not produce the Pre-Budget Statement, the Mid-Year Review and the Audit Report. But it noted that the government has published the Citizens Budget online starting with the 2018 budget.  
     

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