Economic Research | Lebanon This Week | Lebanon This Week 630 | Association of Banks responds to government's recovery plan | Lebanon | Byblos Bank

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Byblos Bank

Lebanon This Week 630

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Association of Banks responds to government's recovery plan

The Association of Banks in Lebanon (ABL) indicated that it cannot endorse the government's financial recovery plan. It said that the government did not consult nor approach ABL about the plan, even though the ABL is a key part of any solution. It noted that the proposed restructuring of the public debt and financial sector will destroy local and foreign confidence in Lebanon. It added that the plan mentions essential building blocks for investor confidence, such as an effective anti-corruption strategy, but does not provide details about them, which raises questions about the timeline for the implementation of these measures. Overall, it considered that the government's plan is likely to deter investments in the economy, which will hinder recovery prospects.

Moreover, the ABL indicated that the government's plan is unfunded, as the authorities assume international financial support, especially from the International Monetary Fund and from the financial pledges made at the CEDRE conference. It added that the government is about to start official discussions with the IMF, while the disbursement of CEDRE-related funds is contingent on the implementation of reforms. In addition, it pointed out that the plan's fiscal measures on the revenues and spending side, which are essential for any support from the IMF, are vague and are not associated with a specific implementation calendar. Further, the ABL considered that the plan's assumptions, including its growth and fiscal assumptions, could be challenged due to "the limited impact ascribed to the aggressive nature of the domestic debt restructuring" and the unknown impact of the current global crisis. It added that an assessment of these impacts could significantly change the fiscal projections in the plan. 

In parallel, the ABL said that the plan does not address inflationary pressures and may lead to hyperinflation. It also noted that the banking sector financed the public sector, which decided to spend the funds without input from banks. It considered that this "presentation portrays a borrower accusing its lender of being responsible for its failure", and that "having a punitive approach to the banking sector actually means a punitive approach to the depositors". It believes that several measures in the plan "infringe upon private property vested rights, which is guaranteed by the Lebanese Constitution and which is one of the key fundamentals of Lebanese society". 

The ABL pointed out that the prevailing conditions in the country urgently call for a constructive dialogue, unity, and solidarity. It considered that it is urgent to take concrete actions and reach consensus among all stakeholders, as the lack of reforms is worsening the situation. The ABL indicated that it intends to submit shortly a plan capable of mitigating the recession and setting the stage for sustained growth.
 
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