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Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 538

May 31, 2018
Country Risk Weekly Bulletin 538
Results of the Saudi Tadawul by Main Sectors 

Source: KAMCO, Byblos Research

  • Profits of listed companies in Saudi Arabia down 16% to $7bn in first quarter of 2018
    The cumulative net income of 152 companies listed on the Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange, or Saudi Tadawul, totaled SAR25.7bn, or $6.9bn, in the first quarter of 2018, constituting a decrease of 16% from SAR30.6bn, or $8.2bn in the same quarter of 2017. Listed banks generated net profits of $3.3bn and accounted for 48.7% of total net earnings in the covered quarter. Basic materials firms followed with $2.4bn (34.5%), then telecommunications firms with $659.3m (9.6%), retailers with $128.3m (1.9%), energy companies with $118m (1.7%), real estate corporates with $98.5m (1.4%), healthcare firms with $82.1m, the food & beverage industry with $81.7m and capital goods corporates with $79.3m (1.2% each), financial services institutions with $45.1m (0.7%), consumer services companies with $39.5m and transportation firms with $37.7m (0.6% each), commercial & professional services companies with $27.1m (0.4%), and insurers with $23.6m and food & staples retailers with $20.2m (0.3% each). Further, the net earnings of energy companies increased by 2.8 times in the first quarter of 2018, followed by capital goods corporates (+2.1 times), real estate management & development firms (+12.8%), financial services institutions (+10.4%), banks (+7.4%), basic materials firms (+5%) and telecom companies (+4.8%). In contrast, the profits of insurers fell by 76.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2018, followed by consumer services companies (-35.2%), transportation firms (-29.3%), the food & beverages industry (-25%), retailers (-5.4%), food & staples retailers (-5%), and healthcare equipment & services firms (-4.9%). Also, the results of utilities companies shifted from profits of $1.3bn in the first quarter of 2017 to losses of $313.4m in the same quarter this year.
    Source: KAMCO
     

  • Impact of higher oil prices to vary across Sub-Saharan African economies
    Merrill Lynch assessed the impact of an increase in global oil prices on the fiscal and external balances of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies in coming months. It noted that Angola, Gabon and Nigeria have the highest fiscal sensitivity to higher oil prices, and anticipated a $10 rise in prices to result in an improvement of more than 1% of GDP in their fiscal balances. Also, it expected Angola to benefit the most regionally from an increase in oil prices, in case its current pace of reforms persists. It added that Angola plans to take further measures to control spending by 2019, such as the introduction of the value-added tax and subsidy cuts. Further, it considered that Gabon has the highest current account sensitivity to an increase in oil prices, and expected the $10 rise in prices to result in an improvement of about 3.3% of GDP in the country's current account balance. As for the region's oil-importing economies, Merrill Lynch pointed out that Zambia is constrained by the lack of fiscal consolidation, its low level of foreign currency reserves and high external financing needs. But, it said that the country's exposure to oil prices has been partly offset by higher global copper prices. Also, it noted that Kenya's fiscal and external deficits, as well as slow fiscal consolidation, would translate into vulnerabilities to rising oil prices. It considered that the current account balances of Kenya and Senegal would deteriorate the most in case of a $10 increase in oil prices. 
    Source: Merrill Lynch

  • Currency depreciation in Turkey negatively affecting banks
    Barclays Capital indicated that the depreciation of the Turkish Lira has weighed on the capitalization of banks operating in Turkey, given that 40% of their assets are in foreign currency, while their capital is mainly in local currency. It expected the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBT) to continue to tighten monetary policy amid increased political pressure to stabilize the lira before the general elections of June 2018. But it anticipated that such CBT measures would weigh on the Turkish banks' profitability and capitalization through higher funding costs in the short term, and would lead to a slowdown in the banks' lending, as well as to a deterioration in their asset quality in the medium term. Also, it considered that risks to the Turkish banks' asset quality have recently increased, given that their large foreign currency-denominated loans to corporates, which represent 30% of total loans, expose them to foreign currency volatility. It noted that corporates have borrowed $174bn in foreign currency from domestic banks and another $107bn from external sources as at the end of 2017. It added that non-performing loans in foreign currency are very low, but noted that the depreciation of the lira has resulted in additional non-performing loans in foreign currency in the first quarter of 2018. Overall, it said that the asset quality of foreign currency-denominated loans remains strong, partly reflecting longer maturities of corporate loans in foreign currency and a strong rollover ratio of such loans. In addition, it said that Turkish banks have reported in the first quarter of 2018 sizeable amounts of Stage 2 loans, which are loans whose credit risk has increased significantly since their initial recognition. But it pointed out that Turkish banks have enough liquidity to absorb the $20bn in new non-performing loans given that their capital buffers exceed the Basel III requirements. 
    Source: Barclays Capital

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