Merrill Lynch assessed the impact of an increase in global oil prices on the fiscal and external balances of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies in coming months. It noted that Angola, Gabon and Nigeria have the highest fiscal sensitivity to higher oil prices, and anticipated a $10 rise in prices to result in an improvement of more than 1% of GDP in their fiscal balances. Also, it expected Angola to benefit the most regionally from an increase in oil prices, in case its current pace of reforms persists. It added that Angola plans to take further measures to control spending by 2019, such as the introduction of the value-added tax and subsidy cuts. Further, it considered that Gabon has the highest current account sensitivity to an increase in oil prices, and expected the $10 rise in prices to result in an improvement of about 3.3% of GDP in the country's current account balance. As for the region's oil-importing economies, Merrill Lynch pointed out that Zambia is constrained by the lack of fiscal consolidation, its low level of foreign currency reserves and high external financing needs. But, it said that the country's exposure to oil prices has been partly offset by higher global copper prices. Also, it noted that Kenya's fiscal and external deficits, as well as slow fiscal consolidation, would translate into vulnerabilities to rising oil prices. It considered that the current account balances of Kenya and Senegal would deteriorate the most in case of a $10 increase in oil prices. 
Source: Merrill Lynch